I have expressed the exact agreement under the Smith commission and, as I understand it, as it appears in the Bill to which the noble Lord has referred.
I turn to the question about the savings raised by the noble Baronesses, Lady Sherlock and Lady Lister. In steady state the savings are currently estimated at £130 million to £140 million. In the current year— 2015-16—the figure is £30 million. I think that we can congratulate the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, on finding the formula relating to the £5 million difference. The figure goes up pretty rapidly to the steady-state figure over the next three years, so it reaches it by 2017-18.
The expenditure with the savings is committed for 2015-16, and I cannot pre-empt the spending review in the autumn. We discussed the things that that would be spent on.
I am trying not to bore the House by telling it things that it might find unnecessary. I can assure the noble Baroness, Lady Lister, that telephone calls are available to arrange meetings. For the most vulnerable, we will explain the availability of universal credit advances either on the phone or face to face if not digitally.
The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, and the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Portsmouth asked: how will we ensure that people are supported in their
work search? We have more than 26,000 staff now trained to provide job coaching, so we are rolling that out in scale.
Let me just wind up. I appreciate that noble Lords genuinely support universal credit. That sentiment has been expressed widely, particularly by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, and the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock. I understand that. It is a slightly odd debate in that way, because noble Lords are trying to reinforce universal credit. I absolutely understand and appreciate that.
It is a savings measure. It releases £130 million to £140 million in steady state. The blunt reality is that, in the present environment, if we did not find money here, we would have to find it somewhere else. The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, has an instinct about how these things happen to which I am very sensitive.
Last week, the Chancellor of the Exchequer set out a vision of a higher-wage, lower-tax, lower-welfare society. As a first step towards this, he pledged to raise the personal allowance to £12,500 by the end of this Parliament, with an £11,000 down payment in the next tax year. Coupled with the living wage, which he announced, it gives people the chance to make decisions about their own money. It is still absolutely right, as noble Lords have said, that universal credit continues to operate as a real safety net for the most vulnerable and offers real support to those wanting to work and support themselves.
I commit to keeping a very close eye on this. I have been alerted to it tonight by noble Lords as something to watch. We are committed to a test and learn strategy. We will be rolling this out from August. I will come back to your Lordships as soon as I have a reasonable level of data to let you know whether that is happening and whether I am right in what I am telling you today: that this will not affect the people about whom noble Lords are so rightly concerned; but that I am right that it affects the people who are flowing through the system and we are just not paying them as much during that short period. I hope I am right on that, and I think that I am, but I will look at this very closely and come back to the House on its concerns about the vulnerable and tell noble Lords what is happening and what my level of confidence is on that when we have real evidence.
8.45 pm
The Chancellor was able to reduce taxes for the lowest earners and put us in a position where we can live within our means by reducing spending on welfare and tax credits by £12 billion, which is an enormous amount of money. I know that we will discuss some of that in the months to come. However, that means that we have to make real choices about how we effectively protect the most vulnerable. I have looked very long and hard at this and decided that, in this context, this change is appropriate and strikes the right balance. I will report back on whether that is the right judgment. I hope that the House will accept that.