It is certainly true that remittances are important, but I was including them in private capital flows, because remittances are one example of them. There is also a great deal of business investment in these countries. That is what is making a difference. There are other things, too, such as better governance. The so-called failed states, which are riddled with corruption, are a real problem, as noble Lords on both sides of the House are well aware—as DfID is well aware and as the evidence that we had on the committee pointed out very clearly. However, the problem of corruption is not going to be solved by dishing out 0.7% of GNI on overseas aid.
Because this is so absurd, I welcome, in general, Clause 2, to which this amendment refers. The clause makes it quite clear that this is not really a serious commitment at all, because all that the Government have to do, if the 0.7% target is not reached in any year, is to lay a Statement before Parliament saying why it has not been reached. This is what my amendment relates to. The clause gives three reasons that the Government can give in telling Parliament why the 0.7% has not been attained, which are,
“economic circumstances … fiscal circumstances and … circumstances arising outside the United Kingdom”.
Noble Lords might think that is pretty comprehensive, but it is not completely comprehensive, which is why I have added one further condition—there are two further conditions, but one in particular belongs to this set—which has been alluded to, very rightly, in some earlier contributions today. It refers to,
“circumstances where meeting the 0.7% target would lead to excessive spending towards the end of a calendar year”.
That is separate from overall economic circumstances, fiscal circumstances or things happening overseas that have affected the picture.
We know that this is a problem. The NAO was extremely critical of it only last year. If you have to shovel stuff quickly out of the door, it will not have
the same value-for-money scrutiny that DfID tries to ensure throughout the year on everything it does. I commend DfID for its attempts to get value for money so far as that is possible in this area. It is far better than any other national aid agency in doing that. It is certainly better than the multinational organisations—the United Nations or the European Union. We discovered that in the evidence we took. But of course the incentive will be to shovel it out to, say, the United Nations in order to hit the target. Therefore, this should be as good and real a reason as the other reasons that are listed in the Bill—economic, fiscal and overseas events—why the Minister should go to Parliament and say, “That is why we have not achieved the target, because to do so would have meant shovelling a large amount out at the end of the year without adequate scrutiny”.
The other condition that I am asking the House to accept is,
“circumstances where anything outlined in paragraphs (a) to (d) is likely to persist”:
that is, economic, fiscal, overseas, and (d), which is my suggestion that it would require too much money to be shoved out quickly to meet the end-year target. This really concerns Clause 2(4), where the Secretary of State also has to inform Parliament of what steps are going to be taken to ensure that the target will be met in the subsequent year. This is even more absurd—we are even more in Alice in Wonderland territory. How on earth can the Secretary of State for Industrial Development—and I have a high regard for the present incumbent, my right honourable friend Justine Greening— ensure that,
“circumstances arising outside the United Kingdom”,
are not going to continue to make the achievement of the target difficult? It is a complete absurdity. Therefore, to try to minimise the absurdity slightly I have suggested this amendment. I beg to move.