My Lords, first, I am most grateful to my noble friend Lord Deben for extolling the virtues of employee ownership, which is very much part of the debate today.
This amendment stipulates that the clause should come into effect only once an independent assessment, conducted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, is laid before both Houses setting out the impact on the Exchequer for each financial year between 2014 and 2030.
The OBR’s role is to provide independent scrutiny and certification of the Government’s policy costings ahead of the Budget and the Autumn Statement. The OBR certified the costing of this measure submitted by HMRC using the methodology set out in the policy costings document published at the Autumn Statement, which is available on the HM Treasury website.
The main duty of the OBR is to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances. The OBR performs this duty independently, with complete discretion to determine the content of its publications and its work programme of research and analysis.
The Government do not publish annual breakdowns of the cost of operating specific tax measures beyond the end of the forecast period, and this has been the case for some time. This will apply to the employee shareholder status in the same way as it applies to the cost of operating any other specific tax measures.
The noble Lord, Lord Adonis, is understandably concerned about the need to support the Government’s agenda for fiscal sustainability. I emphasise that we believe that investment in policies such as this one—aimed at reducing costs on business and increasing productivity —is exactly what is needed at this time. Strong, sustainable and balanced growth is the key to long-term fiscal sustainability. However, I assure the noble Lord that if further provisions are needed to limit its overall costs, we will have the opportunity to include these at a later date.
At this stage, I think it is worth picking up some points that the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, raised concerning the OBR. The OBR, with its responsibility, is right to note that predicting the take-up of new policies such as this one is very difficult. We recognise that, but its comments need clarification. First, the OBR refers to tax planning and not avoidance. Encouraging take-up of this targeted employment policy should not be misconstrued as encouraging avoidance. Secondly, any rise towards £1 billion is estimated to occur well beyond the end of the forecast period—in fact, beyond the 2020s, when national income is likely to be more than twice as high in today’s money. Finally, the draft legislation published on 11 December includes a number of anti-avoidance provisions. If further provisions are needed to address particular avoidance risks, we will have the opportunity to include them at a later date with a view to ensuring that this policy does not become disproportionately costly to the taxpayer.