My Lords, we are now on the issue of the cost of these proposals to the Exchequer. I would like to invite the noble Viscount to explain more fully to the House what he believes the revenue implications
would be as a result of the proposals. The independent assessment by the Office for Budget Responsibility suggests very large figures might be at stake, which is why we are asking for figures to be made available in respect of each financial year up to 2030.
I quote from the policy costings document published by the OBR alongside the Autumn Statement:
“There are a number of uncertainties about this costing”—
that costing being the figure of £80 million over the current spending review period—
“The static cost is uncertain in part because of a lack of information about the current amount of CGT arising from gains on shares through their employer. The behavioural element of the costing is also uncertain for two main reasons. First, it is difficult to estimate how quickly the relief will be taken up; this could make a significant difference as the cost is expected to rise towards £1 billion beyond the end of the forecast horizon. Second, it is hard to predict how quickly the increased scope for tax planning will be exploited; again this could be quantitatively significant as a quarter of the costing already arises from tax planning”.
I would like to invite the noble Viscount to expand on what the OBR said so that we have a better basis for understanding the potential costs of what could be an extremely expensive proposal once the tax planners get going on the opportunities available to them.