I will do my best to answer the noble Lord’s question. Our figures tell us that the impact assessment for new workers will be from nought to a worst-case scenario of £150 million. However, as I mentioned in my opening speech, there is no reason to suppose that the 60% of workers who are currently on a contract will not remain on their existing contract. Noble Lords will know that, if you are an employer, you cannot suddenly change or reduce a contract between two people.
The reality will depend on how farmers use the increased flexibility that will result from the abolition of the Agricultural Wages Board. Many workers are already paid above the agricultural minimum wage, so there is no reason why there should be a change. Moreover, the underlying labour market conditions suggest that workers will be in demand and farmers will need to offer competitive packages to attract and retain skilled and qualified staff. I am afraid that the evidence is against the noble Baroness, Lady Donaghy, who was claiming that the jobs would not be available and farm workers would be leaving the sector. I do not believe at all that that will be the case.
I am also grateful for the intervention from my noble friend Lord Plumb. It is encouraging to note his comments and all the efforts that he has been making in encouraging new workers into farming. I am also grateful for the intervention from my noble friend Lady Byford who, quite rightly, pointed out the importance of ensuring that there were some good working practices that will be retained within the agricultural sector.
The noble Lord, Lord Myners—who is now back in his place—spoke about the difference between the Low Pay Commission and the Agricultural Wages Board. This is exactly the point: there is no need for two different bodies both assessing low pay issues. That plays into our hands as to why we believe that it is right to abolish the Agricultural Wages Board.
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The noble Lord, Lord Hunt, raised the issue of the abolition being non-deregulatory. Many farm businesses have to operate both the agricultural minimum wage and the national minimum wage. Therefore, it will be a removal of a regulatory burden to have a single employment regime. Moreover, many of the consultation responses commented on the complications of the agricultural wages order and the difficulties for farmers in understanding the complexities of its provisions—points made with great eloquence by the noble Earl, Lord Cathcart.
The noble Lord, Lord Hunt, raised the issue of pressure from supermarkets. Since February 2010, all contracts between major food retailers and their direct grocery suppliers must comply with the Groceries Supply Code of Practice. The aim of the code of practice is to ensure that those who directly supply the large grocery retailers do not have unexpected costs or risks transferred to them.