My Lords, I should like to make one preliminary point which is to repeat that, in intending moving this amendment, as I do, I intend no disrespect to the clerks, for whom I have great admiration. Of course, I have written to tell them that. However, there is a serious, genuine difference of opinion about admissibility, which I believe should be subject to the view of this self-regulating House.
Accordingly, I rise to move the amendment tabled in my name, and in the names of the noble Lords, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard, Lord Rennard, and Lord Wigley, whom I thank for their support. The effect of the amendment would be to postpone the review of parliamentary constituency boundaries for one electoral cycle, and similarly delay the reduction in the number of Westminster seats from 650 to 600. It would ensure that the 2015 general election is contested on the basis of current boundaries. It would also provide a window of time to address the current deficiencies in the electoral register and the likely impact on its accuracy and completeness from the introduction of individual electoral registration. As the building block on which boundary reviews are being conducted, the status of the electoral register is fundamental to our system of representative democracy.
4.15 pm
The amendment has two principal purposes. The first is to allow time for the new system of electoral registration to bed down and to allow for opportunities to test how far the register is complete and accurate. That is essential, because the register provides the raw data to be used by the Boundary Commissions in determining constituency numbers and, hence, constituency boundaries. The two are inextricably linked, because any inadequacy or flaw in the register feeds inaccurate calculations in terms of seat numbers and their boundaries. It has the potential to be damaging
to democracy and to seriously undermine the coalition objective of political renewal and re-engaging with the public.
Throughout the Second Reading of this Bill in both Houses, and from many sides, there have been warnings that the register, whatever its policy, will not be sufficiently complete for its purpose. It is generally accepted that, currently, at least 6 million people eligible to vote are missing from the register. That is around 10,000 people—I am averaging the figures—in each constituency; it equates to a missing 88 Parliamentary seats, based on current averages. This is a serious problem for our democracy which must be put right. However, it is also clear that the changes brought about by the Bill, with the transition to individual electoral registration—for all its merits—will lead to a further large number of voters falling off the register. This would be an additional blow to democracy and to the accuracy of the raw data on which boundary reviews will be based.
Furthermore, the pattern of people who are missing from the register is not random. I have heard no one dispute the fact that among those missing from the register are likely to be the young, the very old, the disabled, those from black and minority ethnic communities, those living in areas of high social deprivation and those in private rented accommodation. Some of those groups are already the most marginalised in society, and the shift to individual voter registration—without the proper safeguards which my noble friends on the Front Bench have been calling for throughout the passage of this Bill—will compound this democratic deficit. It is those groups from which even more will be likely to go missing.
The status of the register—its completeness and its accuracy—is extremely important. The Electoral Commission lists the consequences of a flawed register as being people being unable to vote, or wrongly registered at a polling station which is not in their local area; people not being contacted by candidates and political parties campaigning during elections, or campaigners finding that the people on the register are no longer there; people not being summoned for jury service; increased risks of electoral fraud; and, most important for my argument, people not being counted in setting boundaries.
The move to a system of individual electoral registration is welcome; it is due its time, and enjoys cross-party support. It is recognised that the shift may help to tackle problems of fraud. But it is also recognised that there are risks involved in the transition. As I have said, it is clear that the changes contained in the Electoral Registration and Administration Bill are very likely to mean that an additional large number of voters will fall off the register, at least in the initial transition period. The Electoral Commission warns that the introduction of individual electoral registration risks bringing registration rates down from around 90% to as low as 65%.
By the Government’s own admission:
“Individual Electoral Registration (IER) is the biggest change to our system of electoral registration for almost a century and it is essential we get it right”.
However, preliminary findings from the Government’s data-matching pilots, using DWP data to confirm people’s entries on the electoral register, show a success
rate of around 70%. However, looking in more detail at the 14 pilot areas, some returned match rates that were as low as 55%. The Government have judged this to be a good starting level of registration for the transition, but that is a 70% success rate based on a register which we know is already missing 6 million eligible voters. Put shortly, the shift to individual electoral registration risks disenfranchising millions of British electors. My amendment allows time for checking and, if necessary, taking action to put matters right.
My second reason for this amendment is that there is a crisis of uncertainty and confusion in terms of the administration and conduct of the next general election arising from the ongoing but seemingly moribund boundary review. The state of limbo in which that review currently exists is both wasteful of public resources and damaging to democracy. The Deputy Prime Minister has stated repeatedly that the Liberal Democrat Party will not be supporting the boundary review proposals when they come to the other place for voting in the autumn of 2013 and that,
“we are not going to introduce the changes ahead of the general election in 2015”.—[Official Report, Commons, 16/10/12; col. 146].
However, the Leader of the Conservative Party, the Prime Minister, has vowed to plough on with the planned timetable for the boundary changes. Reacting to a statement by Mr Clegg in August, the Prime Minister insisted that the boundary change vote would go ahead. The coalition’s mid-term review published last week pledged that:
“We will provide for a vote in the House of Commons on the Boundary Commission’s proposals for changes to constituencies”,
and yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph reported that Mr Cameron remains “absolutely committed” to boundary reforms and is personally determined to press ahead with the policy. This represents a significant confusion at the top of the Government which is damaging to democracy and once again undermines attempts at restoring public trust in our political system.
Certainty is needed now because it is right that the public should know as early as possible which constituency they are in, and therefore who their candidates are to be, and what they are doing and saying. This is a key element of accountability in our democratic system. Under the current proposals, voters might know neither their constituency nor their candidates until a little over a year before the next general election. The connection between an MP and his or her constituents is probably the most important element in a healthy democracy. That connection is being challenged by this impasse. The continuing uncertainty about boundaries is having a chilling effect on selections, planning and the distribution of resources. It is also inevitably going to be a source of concern and distraction for sitting MPs who should otherwise be focusing on their central role of representing the people who elected them.
Achieving a conclusion and stopping the boundary review process now will also save significant amounts of public money being wasted on a process that appears to be doomed. Government figures released at the end of last year show that the Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland and Wales have so far between them spent around £5.8 million on the current review and related purposes, with a further likely expenditure
of £3.8 million before the end of the review. So this amendment provides a practical solution to the political difficulties and confusion that confront us. It is not a wrecking amendment; it postpones the proposals for boundary reform by one political cycle. It also affords the time and opportunity to check the results of the new system of individual registration, the biggest change in the franchise for 100 years, to ensure that the register is not simply accurate, but complete before it is relied upon by the Boundary Commissions for future boundary reviews.
In a democracy nothing is more important than to ensure that those who are eligible to vote are enabled to do so. If the fountain or well of democracy is tainted, so too is democracy itself. I beg to move.