I will not tire of saying this, but I feel there is a 1930s feel to the world today. The threat picture continues to grow, diversify and become more complex. We live in extremely dangerous times, and the integrated review confirms that—as did the Prime Minister when he answered questions at the Liaison Committee recently. Russia and China will continue to become more assertive; democracy will continue to decline across the world; the new domains of cyber and space pose ever greater challenges to our security, as does the threat from terrorism, not just in the middle east but now in Afghanistan and Africa; and the wider consequences of climate change will only grow.
During the cold war, defence spending was at 4% of GDP. Few would disagree that the threats today are different, but they are arguably more dangerous and more unpredictable, yet we remain on a peacetime budget of just 2.2%. It is simply impossible for the MOD to meet all the obligations spelled out in the integrated review, hence the sweeping cuts that are now taking place across our defence capabilities, something that has not gone unnoticed by either our allies or our adversaries.
The new US Defence Secretary will shortly be in town. I am sure that No. 10 will gloss over General Austin’s decision to visit Berlin and Brussels before London. We should read the signals: our special relationship requires work. General Austin’s public message in London is likely to be: “Well done on the integrated review. We like the global Britain thing and we welcome your investment in special forces, cyber and space resilience.” But in private, he will be more candid and is likely to say
something very different: “Your Navy is now too small. Don’t cut your tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and 10,000 troops; you might be needing them sooner than you think. And please don’t reduce the F-35 order from 138 originally down to 48.” Why? Because the next decade is going to become very busy indeed.
Indeed, look at what the integrated review tries to achieve—help shape the international world order and deploy UK soft power; be a force for good for human rights; tilt to the Indo-Pacific; step up in Africa and the Gulf; lead NATO in Europe; stand up to China’s competition and Russia’s aggression, and create a space force and invest in cyber resilience. That is a formidable charge that we simply cannot achieve under a peacetime defence budget of just 2%, so I have huge sympathy with my hon. Friend the Minister for the Armed Forces, who is in the invidious position of having to make such tough decisions. We have heard about the impact: cuts to our frigates, with capability gaps because the replacement equipment is not ready in time, and similar effects on our land warfare capability and the RAF.
However we look at it, this is a dramatic cut in our conventional defence posture that will limit the UK’s options in stepping forward to assist in conflict prevention, stabilisation, peacekeeping and nation-building skills—things that we have been so good at in the past. I make it very clear that the real threat will come from China—not directly through going to war, but through our being nudged out from favoured nation status across the world. We need to re-engage with our allies, and that requires force presence and upstream engagement. We can do it only with the kind of hard power and the size of force that we had during the cold war.
5.5 pm