Thank you, Mr Austin, for allowing me to make a short speech. I apologise for being in the main Chamber, first for the Yemen statement and then for the G7 statement, but I had put in a request to speak in this debate when neither of those were scheduled.
I want to comment on a couple of points made by the hon. Member for Stroud (Dr Drew). He described the referendum two years ago as dreadful, and I agree with him on that point. I do not, however, agree with his conclusion that we should not have another referendum. It does not automatically follow that if we have a final say on the deal, or a people’s vote, that that referendum would be dreadful as well. That is not necessarily the case. From talking to people on both sides of the argument, I have found that the discussion we should have had before the referendum is the one that we have had over the past two years. People’s awareness of what it means is therefore much greater now than it was prior to June 2016. I am confident that, although any such campaign will never be 100% clean—I am certain of that—it will be a hell of a lot cleaner than the one we had two years ago, particularly if we make sure that certain safeguards are put in place, as has happened in referendums in other countries.
For instance, an independent arbiter can examine the claims made by both camps. I accept that, two years ago, people on both sides of the argument told porkies. They were, on occasion, mendacious and fantastical. On other occasions they were deluded, and in some cases their claims were all three of those things at once. We could have someone with the ability to say, “No, you cannot say that”, and clamp down on it straight away.
We also need a much higher degree of awareness and checks and balances in social media campaigning, so that every single advert that goes out on Facebook—if we allow it—has the equivalent of the “printed and published by” that appears on the bottom of our leaflets, and people can see who it comes from. If it comes from me, they will see, “Tom Brake, Liberal Democrats”, and know it is an advert funded by me. Equally, if it comes from my Conservative or Labour opponent, they will know that as well. If it has nothing on the bottom of it and has therefore come from President Putin, they can draw their own conclusions about the possible source of that particular advert in a referendum campaign. I think we can do things differently.
There is another reason why opinions are so divided, to use the phrase of the hon. Member for Stroud. There is nothing to suggest that, as the Government steamroller through the proposals that some Conservative Brexiters love so much, the nation will not be anything other than even more divided that it was when it voted in June 2016. He might think otherwise. He might think that the Government will somehow, miraculously, manage the process, but they have not even managed to unite their own Front Benchers, so how will they unite the country behind their proposals? Frankly, that will not happen. If we do leave, we will be as divided as we were before June 2016.
In some ways, therefore, having a final say on the deal, or a people’s vote, gives everyone the opportunity to look at what it means now that we have an understanding of what is involved. Rather than the European Union being about to give us billions of pounds, the truth is far from it: we are about to give it billions of pounds—up to £40 billion. If people understand the extent of what is involved, they will go into the campaign with a clearer understanding. If a people’s vote were to take place and we had a 10-week campaign that was relatively fair and properly administered, and if the country voted 52-48 for whatever deal the Government had secured, as far as I am concerned that would be it. We would have voted to leave the European Union and we would go, even though I dislike intensely that approach. At least most people would feel that they had had the campaign to which they were entitled—but never got—in June 2016. I do not agree with the hon. Member for Stroud that proceeding in the way proposed by the Government will ensure that the country is not extremely divided.
The petition gives rise to the question whether there should be a people’s vote, so I suppose the first thing to ask is whether one is wanted. The hon. Member for Stroud said that there has not been a shift in people’s views. Most polls suggest that there has been a slight shift in favour of remain. In Northern Ireland, which perhaps has more knowledge than anywhere else of the impact of Brexit, there has been a very large shift in support for staying in the EU.