The proposed new clause is designed to stimulate strong growth, which I suspect everyone in this House would welcome. I trust that the Government are in the market for ideas that would stimulate strong growth, but my sad conclusion is that a sudden cut in VAT of undefined duration is neither a sufficient condition for stimulating strong growth in the economy nor even a necessary precondition of such stimulation.
We have to ask what the alternative is to the Opposition’s recommendation, which we all agree is well-intended because they wish to see strong growth. I submit that the prime thing the Government need to do to raise the growth rate and get over this period of extremely disappointing performance is mend the banks. It is surprising that the official forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility thought there would be strong growth over the past three years, because they knew that the official policy on the Royal Bank of Scotland, which is largely state owned, was to push the bank through the most enormous slim-down, a continuation of the policy begun in 2008 when it was largely acquired by the state under the previous Government.
So far, £900 billion of assets and liabilities have been removed from RBS’s £2.2 trillion balance sheet since the state foolishly took them on. How can we expect the British economy to grow rapidly when its leading bank is going through a forced slimming programme of £900 billion? This is big money, even for a £1.5 trillion economy. We spend most of our time in this place discussing the odd £5 billion or £10 billion—we are now billionaires in our discussions rather than millionaires— but these figures have very little overall impact on a £1.5 trillion economy, whereas £900 billion is eye-poppingly large. We have to deal in trillions now if we want to see
the things that really make a difference to the economy. I submit that the main reason why our economy is not growing rapidly is that the banks, led by RBS and abetted by HBOS, have been on a very sharp slimming programme. It is true that some of those assets were foreign and a lot of them were derivatives and so on, but overall, this massive slimming programme has clearly placed enormous pressure on the UK economy.
In addition, this place, as part of the political debate, has discovered that bankers are even more unpopular than politicians, so it has taken great delight in trying to do as much damage as possible to the banking industry. I understand that the banking industry did not do well for itself—I am enough of a politician to realise the politics of all this—but if we target one of our biggest and most successful industries of the previous decade and force it into slimming down measures and tax it more, we should expect a drop in output, and that is what has happened. One of the reasons why we do not have much growth in this country is that our lead sector of the previous decade has taken such a big hit and is now so politically unpopular that pressures remain to prevent it from growing and recovering as some of us would like.
A third area that has caused considerable problems is oil and gas. We cannot legislate to change the age profile of our reservoirs, many of which have aged a lot recently in terms of the amount of oil and gas left to exploit. There are arguments about other tax policies we could pursue to stimulate more finds and exploitation, but some of the big, successful reservoirs of previous years are now ageing, so whoever was running the country was going to experience a reduction in output from another of our high-value-added sectors—oil and gas—and that was bound to hit the growth rate.
What more can we do to overcome those difficulties in two of our lead sectors? Tax measures proposed by other clauses that we will discuss later could be helpful. Broadly speaking, the lower the tax rate, the better from the point of view of stimulating growth, and there have been some measures in the right direction.
The problem with the proposed new clause’s VAT measure is that it is so expensive and I do not think we would get a big enough return for the colossal loss of revenue that it would cause. We have already heard an estimate of about £10 billion, but the Labour Opposition have given us no figures whatsoever. They have not told us how much it would cost, how long it would be a concessionary rate and on what conditions they would return to the new rate. That weakens their case, because if they wish to make this a serious policy, they need to cost it and explain by how much the deficit would rise in the early stages and at what point the growth would accelerate enough to start to generate serious revenues from increased activity.
The evidence seems to be that, whereas it is possible to do serious damage to the revenues generated by income tax and capital gains tax if the rates are put up too much—I fear that that is what has happened under the Labour and coalition Governments in recent years—it is more difficult to depress the revenues of VAT. Indeed, the increase from 17.5% to 20% actually produced some increase in revenue, despite the poor performance of the economy, so the argument that cutting the rate generates more revenue—economists call it the Laffer curve argument—does not apply in the same way as it does to
taxes geared towards gains and income, whereby more realistic rates would do two good things, namely generate more growth and, therefore, more tax revenue. I fear that the problem with the VAT proposal is that this short-term measure would definitely increase the deficit and that the stimulus from VAT would not be sufficient to replace the lost revenue in any serious period of time over which this experiment might be tried.
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Meanwhile, the banks would still underperform, unless we changed regulatory policy towards them, and we would still be under-banked, because I do not believe there is enough banking capacity to fuel a proper domestic recovery and we do not have enough competition in the banking sector so we do not have choice or good value offers. People still tell me that if they try to get certain kinds of lending for business or for property, the answer is either no, or yes, but at an incredibly high cost with all sorts of restrictions and difficulties that make it unattractive.
If we tried to promote growth against the background of some of our primary export markets on the continent collapsing as a result of the foolish euro policy and the extreme austerity policies that are doing so much damage to the continent, we would need to be extremely clever in offsetting the additional headwind caused by that collapse. If we tried to promote growth against the background of major difficulties in our banking sector, we would need to ask ourselves how we can mend that sector, first to finance a better recovery and secondly because one of the main reasons why the output figures are so poor is that the banking sector itself—one of our best performing sectors—is now doing so badly.
I urge my right hon. and hon. Friends on the Front Bench to turn their attention to the central issue that the Opposition have rightly highlighted. I know that the Government are doing that, but I want them to look at splitting up RBS and creating banking competition in the market so that we can finance a better recovery and get some growth in output from the banking sector at the same time. They need to focus on tax rate cuts that would produce more revenue rather than those that would produce less. Although we would like lower taxes, we cannot afford less revenue and the Opposition have hit upon the one tax reduction that would produce less revenue, as I think all forecasts would rightly show. I trust that the Opposition’s good intentions will be welcomed, but that their proposal will be dismissed, because I simply do not think that it would trigger the fast growth that they want and that they have not even bothered to define.