I am interested to hear that the hon. Gentleman has some sympathy with our proposal—I suspect that we might not have the same agreement over some of the other issues up for debate today. He raises important issues. That is why, through new clause 2, we want to ensure that a report would be produced. We are calling on the Government to do that now, rather than put it off into the future. The Government could put in place monitoring measures now; that would allow for a temporary VAT cut, which would help stimulate the economy.
Borrowing to pay for the cost of economic failure has risen—it is now forecast to be £245 billion more than planned at the time of the spending review. That, of course, excludes the one-off transfers of the Royal Mail pension fund and asset purchase facilities. The Government are not going to balance the books by 2015 as the Prime Minister promised. National debt as a percentage of GDP is not now forecast to start falling until 2017-18. It is important to remember that, as it breaks one of the Government’s own fiscal rules.
As this week’s labour market statistics show, halfway through a Parliament, Britain is still being scarred by rising unemployment, an issue raised in earlier debates by many hon. Members, who brought attention to what was happening in their constituencies in the real world.
Not only are more people unemployed than at the election, but the number is rising. Earlier, my hon. Friend the Member for Newcastle upon Tyne North referred to the rising numbers: 70,000 more people are on the dole now than last month; long-term unemployment has risen yet again; and, most damagingly of all, the next generation is paying the brutal price, with youth unemployment up yet again, by 20,000.
People are no longer giving the Chancellor the benefit of the doubt. I think I said that about this time during last year’s debate; I felt that at that stage the public were beginning to lose confidence in the Chancellor’s economic strategy. This week, we have to take note of what the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist said:
“In the face of very weak private demand, it may be time to consider adjusting the original fiscal consolidation plan”.