HMRC’s report, “The Exchequer effect of the 50 per cent additional rate of income tax”, but I will go into that in more detail in due course.
The Prime Minister went on record and said in this Chamber that the 50p tax rate was cut because it did not raise any money—the Minister seems to have just made the same assertion—but page 39 of HMRC’s report makes it clear that it resulted in a yield of about £1.1 billion, which is hardly a sum to ignore in these straitened financial times. However, what stands out most from HMRC’s assessment—this point was also raised when we debated last year’s Finance Bill—is the number of times that the words “uncertain” and “uncertainty” appear; I nearly lost count, but it is a staggering 30 times. The Chancellor decided to give a tax cut to his millionaire pals before we had a clear picture of the impact of the 50p rate.
That is not just the view of the Opposition. Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, stated:
“This is a judgement based on not even a full year’s data, based in terms of how people have responded to the 50p rate, in particular in terms of those self assessment tax-payers.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said:
“By giving out £3 billion to well-off people who pay 50p tax…the Government is banking on a very, very uncertain amount of people changing their behaviour and paying more tax as a result of the fact that you’re taxing them…There is a lot of uncertainty, a lot of risk on this estimate.”
In its report on the 2012 Budget, the Treasury Committee concluded:
“The costs and benefits of reducing the additional tax rate to 45p are both highly uncertain, and could be significantly more or less than the cost included in the Budget. We recommend that HMRC publish in due course a comprehensive assessment of the effect on the Exchequer of the new 45p rate.”
We agree. We need a full and proper assessment of what effect the top rate tax cut has had on tax receipts and we need to be sure that the Government continue to estimate what the gain would be if the additional rate were returned to 50%. We need, as the IFS has previously suggested, to get a clear understanding of whether the short-run response to this tax cut has been symmetric to the introduction of the 50p rate. Will people continue to use the avoidance techniques that the Government clearly believe they employed to avoid the 50p rate, or will some or all of that activity come to an end as a result of the new 45p rate? The Government should commit to our amendment’s request for such a review, if they genuinely seek to maximise revenue to the Exchequer and not to give a tax break to their millionaire friends.