Welfare Reform Bill

My Lords, forgive me for taking a little time in introducing this amendment. It seeks to address delivery concerns around the implementation of universal credit and requires a report to be published in both Houses demonstrating that there has been proper, full testing and establishment of things such as the IT systems, the ““necessary administrative agreements”” and other systems that are necessary to make the universal credit work. I know that, as discussed last week in Committee, we have a much fabled briefing that the Minister is going to give us on delivery. I think that is on 3 November; the sooner we get some detail on that, if nothing else, the better so that we can get the right time and place in our diary. However, I hope that the Minister, in responding to and thinking about this, can at least give us some thought that is on the record. My intention in moving this amendment is to get some of my concerns about the delivery of universal credit on the record here in this Committee, in front of your Lordships and in the official record. As I have said on other occasions in discussing this Bill, I strongly support the principle of the universal credit as indeed I support the work programme. In many ways, they are both too important to fail but I am worried about failure. My worry is not about the strategy, which is right, but more about the tactics and timing given what else is going on in the environment around the introduction of these reforms, so that they in turn will then affect the reforms being delivered with any success. My worry is that there is in some ways a time bomb set to go off around 2013-14, as universal credit starts to be introduced, and that we need Parliament to be able carefully to monitor the development of these reforms in order to have reassurance that my worst predictions are not going to come true. There is a high risk around this performance and, as I said at Second Reading, I would like to see the delivery milestones for this programme published. That risk is enhanced given that the additional funding for implementing the universal credit is capped at £2 billion, including the additional AME cost attached to the programme, as I understand it, from my reading of the Public Accounts Committee's recent report. There is a background to that, which I will go on to talk about, and which makes me very anxious. The background is principally economic but it also involves some of the things that the department itself is responsible for. We are seeing housing benefit changes and planning reforms in the form of the Localism Bill, some that have been discussed in this Bill and others that have been moved in regulation that raise serious questions in my mind around housing affordability and homelessness. We will discuss in Committee the effect of the changes in this Bill on the disabled. There is also the effect of the failure of government economic policy in stimulating growth, which, as we heard last week, is leading to rising inflation and rising unemployment. We know from the Institute of Fiscal Studies' recent report about worries that another 300,000 children will move into child poverty over the next two years despite the fact that median incomes will remain stagnant or worse, which is quite an achievement given the relative poverty measure for children. The IFS thinks that there will be such a disproportionate impact on poor people's wages and benefits that another 300,000 children will go into poverty. This impact on unemployment in particular is leading to growing fears among providers of the work programme that there will be a collapse in the viability of that flagship programme in about two years' time because there simply will not be the jobs for people to go into to be paid by results for. At the same time, the capacity of Jobcentre Plus is being reduced in order to deal with the fallout of an 8,000 headcount reduction over the comprehensive spending review period, which will lead to a loss of talent in the welfare-to-work area, which compounds the loss that has already taken place with people being moved from the flexible New Deal into the work programme. A survey that I saw in the Times last week said that that had led to a 50 per cent loss of talent in the industry already. There is a £1.4 billion temporary allocation to the DWP to assist with the recession, which is now being withdrawn even though unemployment is going up. All of this, which sounds very rambling, leads to an external environment that will put huge pressure on the Department for Work and Pensions as it is seeking to implement this programme and huge pressure on DWP budgets at the same time. I cannot see that the assumption within the CSR of the DWP's funding settlement of unemployment falling to 1.1 million will hold true. No serious commentator would agree with it. That has implications around the risks to universal credit as a programme. I appeal to the Minister to get his head out from beneath the towel he has to hide under in order to think about these things and think seriously about that external environment. I have real fears of significant social problems emerging over the next year or so and becoming more acute in two years' time as a result of all these changes. They will increase the number of people dependent on universal credit and that in turn increases the pressure on it, hence the need for a report to Parliament on delivery to ensure that it is staying on track and that none of my fears is founded. It is worth reflecting on what the new Permanent Secretary at the department said in evidence to the Public Accounts Committee in the other place. When he was asked how risky the change was in respect of universal credit, he replied in Question 58 of the evidence that: "““There is substantial risk in it””." It does not take a genius to say that there is substantial risk, but it is not just my opinion. On some of those risks, we are reliant according to the programme on 80 per cent being able to apply online by 2017. I did a lot of work on digital inclusion during my time in the department. It is something for which I have a great passion. In many ways, it is right to be digital by default in the design of a programme like this and then to work hard at making sure that poorer families have access to online so that they can make substantial savings in their household bills, for example, in order to be able to do that. The question for the Government is: have they allocated resource to get people online? I am sure that they will be working with UK Online and the excellent work that Helen Milner does as its head. Are they extending discussions with her to extend some UK Online centres into job centres? Will they extend the number of terminals in job centres so that people can use them, perhaps with assistance for those who are unable to do so?