Fixed-term Parliaments Bill

My Lords, I plan to be extremely brief, as I have classes to teach in Hull shortly after 9 o’clock in the morning. I wish to raise one point arising from what the noble Lord, Lord Howarth, has said. I have considerable sympathy with the argument that he is developing that either the Speaker’s certificate goes out of the Bill completely or, if it stays in, it needs to be refined. He was teasing out the point made by the Minister that the Government would expect the Speaker to indicate in advance whether he would certify a Motion as one of confidence. So, on the basis of that expectation, I wish to raise this question. One could raise it on any serious Bill but I have used before the example of the European Communities Bill in 1972, where the Prime Minister, Edward Heath, said, ““If we lose this, the Government cannot sensibly continue””. If, in a situation like that, the Speaker took a contrary view and declined to certify the Bill as one of confidence but the Prime Minister said, ““This is essential to our programme and, if we are defeated, we shall resign””, what would happen?