Climate Change Bill [HL]

I did indeed say that it would be in extremis, but the Bill does allow that. It is very unlikely that that would happen. I am not arguing that it would actually happen, but it could, within a very large spectrum, mean that any of those results, between what we emit now and what our target is in the future, could be possible, given the flexibility of the concept of the carbon account in this Bill. It is quite clear that those outcomes could be very broad. The principle of my own amendment, Amendment No. 111, that I also wish to talk to, is that we need to understand this difference. I am not completely against including a certain degree of trading within our targets for reduction—that is a practical and reasonable way forward. Again, I emphasise the point that if we say that we do not allow all credits and trades to count, that does not in any way stop those trades happening anyway, because they do happen. The EU ETS will carry on regardless, as will the flexible mechanisms under Kyoto and no doubt its successors. What we are saying—this is absolutely core to what the Government themselves believe—is that there has to be, primarily, a reduction in carbon in our own economy, outside of any trading. To do that, we need to have that stated in the Bill itself. It is as simple as that. In my own amendment, and that of my noble friend Lord Redesdale, we have put two numbers. We have said 10 per cent up to 2020 and then 5 per cent. I am far less adept at mathematics than my noble friend Lady Miller. I had meant that to mean 10 per cent and 5 per cent of the total carbon budget, rather than the difference. These numbers are clearly things that we would have to be more clear and precise about, as we move through the Bill. It is essential for the purpose of the Bill, for the reputation of the Bill internationally and for our leadership internationally that there should be a restriction—preferably one that gets tighter as time goes on—on how much we can include carbon trades within our carbon budget. That is the way that we will lead. That is the way to make it clear to the international community that there is no fudge factor—this is much bigger than wiggle room—and to say that really we are leading here. We need that to be in the Bill. In terms of the view of the noble Lord, Lord Crickhowell, on targets, I am very reticent—I am not saying it is impossible—about delegating that entirely to a climate change committee. At the end of the day, it is up to politicians to decide on the right figure. It is not going to be just a technical calculation. It is not just a purely scientific calculation to work out what this percentage should be. I think it is one that is, to a degree, going to be subjective, and one that we should be able to make our own decision over, perhaps following advice. I would be disappointed if we did not have a number for the total proportion of credits actually in the Bill.