Statistics and Registration Service Bill

I shall simply say a few words in support of the amendments in this group that are in my name and the name of my hon. Friend the Member for Falmouth and Camborne (Julia Goldsworthy). Essentially, they support and complement the comments of the hon. Member for Fareham (Mr. Hoban). The subject of pre-release is, certainly at this stage of our proceedings, the cause of one of the biggest differences between the Government and the Opposition, and there is a degree of frustration about our inability to make progress in clarifying the safeguards surrounding pre-release. So far, the Government have defended their position on the rather fundamentalist grounds that pre-release is justified in principle, and therefore a whole raft of current practices are justified. Today, we will not dispute the principle of pre-release; there is good reason for it in certain instances where highly sensitive economic data are concerned, and for limited periods. When the statistical community has commented on the practice, it has usually conceded that point. For example, the Statistics Commission acknowledged in its submission that"““There is a recognition…that for key data series there will be a need for Ministers to have…some advance warning””," but it went on to say:"““In most countries, the prior access is about half an hour—that’s a huge difference and it does mean all sorts of mischief gets done””." The issue, therefore, is not the fundamental principle of pre-release, but the time and the circumstances surrounding it. The hon. Member for Fareham quoted Liam Halligan’s eloquent piece on the subject, but to take another topical example, comment was recently passed on the British crime survey. The Government are in the habit of releasing crime data statistics and accompanying them with the comment that they are ““the best source”” of data. Professor Adrian Smith of Queen Mary college, University of London, one of the Government’s chief advisers on statistical matters, produced a scathing criticism of that particular interpretation of crime data. He notes that it"““flies in the face of common sense.””" That same professor produced an excellent report for the Government on mathematics education, so he is clearly not at odds with the Government on fundamentals. He makes the point that there has been a simple misuse of economic statistics through the pre-release process. The question is how best to define the boundaries of pre-release. In our exchanges in Committee, there was a to-ing and fro-ing of arguments about other countries’ practices. I cited what I thought was probably the best example of good practice: the United States. I quoted the Royal Statistical Society as saying that the President of the United States had half an hour’s warning of key economic data, and I said that that demonstrated how tough and restrictive its arrangements were. The Minister subsequently wrote to me—I am grateful for his letter—to correct the Royal Statistical Society and me, and rightly so. He pointed out that the President of the United States has overnight access to data. Clearly, even the best experts can get things wrong. The Minister’s letter proves his point in a way, but in a wider sense it does not, because the letter makes it clear that in the American experience, pre-release is not only restricted to overnight access, rather than 40 hours, but it is restricted to a very limited range of statistical indicators, and very few people in the United States have any access to the data. He made his point, but he reinforced the perception of the promiscuous way in which the British pre-release system is used and abused, across the Government. The other example of a fairly permissive system is Canada; most other countries have either no or very little pre-release, but the Canadians allow overnight access to data, which is reasonably generous. However, they also restrict considerably the uses to which pre-release can be put. They limit considerably the number of people who have access to the data, and they limit its use by non-statisticians. Therefore, the question is not the principle of pre-release—we concede that there is a case for it, for the purposes of this argument—the question is how to apply proper boundaries to it. I suspect that when the debate gets to the House of Lords, a strong case will be made by people who have much more direct experience of the matter than we do. I should like to quote Lord Moser, who has been cited on several occasions, and who takes a hard line on the subject. He argues that"““pre-release should basically be abolished.””" He goes on to say that he thinks pre-release should be"““perhaps something over one hour, so that the minister can be prepared to answer questions… I would leave it to the new board to decide whether there should be any exceptions. My own view would be to start from no exceptions.””" I suspect that when the Bill reaches the other place there will be amendments along the lines that he suggests. We propose something less radical, so I hope that the Government would find it easier to live with. First, we propose amendment No. 36, which, by interposing a couple of words in clause 11, would effectively make pre-release subject to the professional judgments of the statistics board, rather than subject to the current opaque arrangements, the details of which we have not yet seen. Secondly, we would provide for pre-release of up to two hours. By international standards, that is generous—it is twice as generous as the period recommended by Lord Moser. It provides a limitation or cap on pre-release data, so the Government should not find it too difficult to accept. It is in a spirit of compromise that we suggest acceptance of the principle of pre-release while imposing boundaries on the process itself and the time.