My Lords, like others, I very warmly welcome the return to government, and indeed the entry into our counsels here in this House, of someone with as much deep familiarity with world diplomacy and world politics as my noble friend Lord Cameron. A decade or more ago, I had the privilege of serving in a minor role in his Administration—rather more minor, actually, than I had hoped for, but nevertheless it was extremely interesting—where we were dealing with the Commonwealth, which was all part of the repositioning of Britain. This was pre-Brexit, but many of the forces which are driving us along today existed then. I was Minister for International Energy Security. With hindsight, I do not think I did a very good job there—certainly there have been a lot of problems since. But this is a good moment, and I am very pleased.
My noble friend inherits an appalling set of problems, and there are no immediate solutions to any of the major crises that this nation or the whole world is facing at the present time. There is poison in every chalice. The skill will lie in handling the issues and in deploying new compounds of persuasive soft power and decisive hard power—they go together; they cannot operate separately—and a new understanding of the world of networks in which we now live. This means seeing the world order—or disorder, as it is now—through the eyes of others, as well as our own, and through the eyes of the future, as well as our history. It means ceaselessly creating new alliances, and swiftly, to meet endlessly unfolding new crises. This is the enlightened and agile sort of diplomacy that we will need to survive over the next decades of this century.
In my view, our new Foreign Secretary should not be judged by the instant diplomatic successes that he chalks up—although I suppose the media will have a shot at that—but by whether there is a real understanding that our nation is in an entirely new position, requiring many different sorts of alliances, backed by huge ingenuity and constant resilience, and readiness to recognise the totally new factors at work in the international landscape. We need a restart from a fresh realisation. Nowadays, in this digital age, most nations, large and small, want to be free of too much Chinese hegemony and pressure on that side, with all its traps and dangers, of which we can see a great deal going on, and from too much overassertive leadership and stale ideology, served up on the western side from some parts of the American establishment. It is partners that people want; they do not need overbearing bosses.
I come to the treaty and the legislation needed to bring it into effect. A moment ago, the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith, described how, in the committee that he so ably chairs, we are scrutinising the CPTPP arrangements, the treaty and the details very seriously indeed. Of course, there is a lot more work to be done, and no doubt we shall have an opportunity in this Chamber to procedure these things—always remembering that the complexity is of just the kind where a committee inquiry is the most effective way of getting at the details. Later on, we can deal with the legal aspects in the Chamber, but, if we really want to go into the depth of the detail, it is in the committee environment where we will succeed in doing so.
I regard the treaty as a step in a strategic shift of the first importance for our nation, and I am glad to see that the impact assessment echoes that sentiment. There are many more steps to be taken in the same direction but this is one that some of us have been urging the UK to move towards for at least the past decade, if not more. The Minister and the Foreign Secretary are quite right to depict membership of the CPTPP as a gateway, or pathway, to high-growth Asian markets as part of our Indo-Pacific tilt. The second version of the Cabinet Office’s integrated review makes this point very clearly indeed—of course, there will now have to be a third version, I am afraid, in the light of more developments in the Middle East. That third review will also need to reinforce the same message: this is part of a clear strategy.
I know that the estimated trade gains look pretty small, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, alluded to; I think that the figure is an extra £4.9 billion-worth of trade both ways by 2040, which is not very much. However, that is because, as the noble Lord, Lord Razzall, said, we already have trade agreements with most of the members—although not with Malaysia—and any gains from this treaty will come on top of those existing flows. More than that, the CPTPP is about far more than further increasing our measured volumes of conventional trade with other member states, which is always difficult to estimate anyway. Not only is the group going to expand in number—three more countries have already applied to join; China obviously wants to join, which raises all sorts of tricky developments which we will have to deal with in due course and which we are examining in the committee—but behind the trade deals lie several major new realities about the nature and patterns of trade and exchange in the 21st century that many people still seem reluctant to face or grasp.
The first of these is that, over the next 30 years, most of the growth in consumer markets and investments will be in the Asian region. We are looking here at something that is already as big as the EU single market and at new trade and economic groupings, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which are already larger in overall GDP than the EU. Then of course there is the liquidity of ASEAN as a whole, which we are developing at the moment. At the same time, there are huge new infrastructure projects across Eurasia, weaving the whole Asian continent together, about which we have hardly any coverage in our media here. That is the first reality.
Secondly, the reality is that trade flows and investment of all kinds—direct and financial, both ways—are welded together, each promoting the other. They are inseparable.
Thirdly, half of what we broadly call trade, and which conjures up visions of thousands of containers on giant cargo carriers, is now trade in knowledge products, digital trade, trade in services, data and technology innovations. Every installed piece of capital equipment comes with a vast package of high-tech procedures, personnel and supporting consultancy. We are informed that 42% of all this country’s trade with CPTPP members is in services of various kinds—it is probably very much higher.
Fourthly, Japan has been of enormous assistance to us on the pathway to membership. Our growing ties with Japan on many industrial and technological fronts,
including the enormous Tempest combat aircraft project, are a parallel story, maybe for another day, but are hugely important for our future. People forget that Japan is still the world’s third-largest industrial power and, in terms of underlying stability and conditions, is favourable to competitive enterprise. In a way it is vastly ahead of its Chinese neighbour. We should stick to Japan like glue on every front, security included. Incidentally, I declare an interest in past and present links with Japan and two of its biggest enterprises, Mitsubishi Electric and Central Japan Railway.
Fifthly, it is worth noting that when we join the CPTPP, more than half its membership will be members of the Commonwealth network. People may say, “What has that got to do with trade?” The answer is, “A very great deal”. Not only are matters often settled informally and in the coffee break, rather than over formal transcripts round the negotiating table; the whole trade and investment process works much the best within a broader context of unifying forces and activities, ranging from the cultural and artistic, education and scientific research, to constant new thinking in many fields of professional standards and training. Above all, there is the fact of the English-speaking world and a common business language between us all. English contains its own DNA, which grows and which no amount of official disregard, jealousy or historic dislike can eliminate.
It so happens that the binding values that hold the Commonwealth together today and cause it to grow and attract new members, as now, are just the ones which are of key significance in the digital age of hyper- connectivity—binding links not just between officialdom and Governments, which may seem at times to be at odds, but at every level of society and interest. These are such things as the rule of law, open societies, free speech and free press, independent judiciary, free elections, proper concern for human rights, due process and adherence to international norms and standards, all of which are now becoming part of the survival kits for the planet’s army of independent nations—the so-called “neo non-aligned” states.
We must get out of the patronising habit of bundling so many nations together as the so-called developing world. Every new nation today and every society—maybe even hermit states such as North Korea—are developing in different ways. That includes us, as we embark on the great energy transition which will bring with it a great social development transition as well—on which, incidentally, we have hardly started.
Today, the CPTPP needs a hinterland of support, activity and connection if it is to flourish. I was disappointed that last year, the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia—ERIA, the powerful research wing of ASEAN—wanted to hold a major conference here in London with our leading think tanks and policy groups but was turned away or only offered co-operation, on impossible and ridiculous terms and fees. That is where the FCDO should have stepped in—if it even knew about it.
I hope that this lesson on the need for surrounding activity beyond trade itself in the areas of business, culture, science and all the rest is now understood in Whitehall and Downing Street, and that steps are even now being taken to bring the right groupings together
between all the new Asian powers and the United Kingdom, covering all fronts and at the highest possible level. Trade rides with investment, security, culture and values, and with daily connectivity. Please can we not forget that.
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