My Lords, in the midst of the awful complexity of this war, we should constantly remind ourselves and others that it is not a war between Jew and Muslim. It is not even a war between Israeli and Palestinian. It is a war between the State of Israel and a terrorist group called Hamas, the former fighting for its very existence and the latter fighting to completely eradicate the former. That is the real dividing line between those sides. Whatever our misgivings about the political track record of recent Israeli Governments—and I have many—none of them excuses the terrible activities of Hamas, which have been commented on by everyone. I will not elaborate upon them but, as the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, said, the slaughter of the innocents sums it up.
It has been called evil beyond imagination but it is not unimaginable; in fact, we have all seen it before. It fits the established pattern set by al-Qaeda, Islamic State, al-Shabaab and others. It arises primarily from Islamist ideology and practice, a toxic mix of perverted Islam, fascism and cruelty. That is why Arab leaders such as Mahmoud Abbas or Saudi’s Prince Turki condemn Hamas’s terrorism, stressing that Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people; it represents that Islamist ideology. Against this evil, Israel has the right to defend itself. That is not the question; the question is how it does that.
All of us, including the Israeli Government, should ponder deeply on this, because while I completely understand the anger, grief and frustration felt by the Israelis, I also know that anger and frustration are rarely drivers of good strategy. When we ponder what might happen, we should brace ourselves, because there is more awful, horrific death to come. Even without a ground war, there will be more innocent civilian casualties. I have some familiarity with what is called targeted precision bombing—let me tell your Lordships that in the fog, friction and pace of war, targeted precision bombing will not be precise. There will be perhaps thousands more civilians killed in Gaza: collateral damage, in the euphemism. Hamas, for its part, will not care about that —indiscriminate bombing is its trademark, and as far as the people of Gaza are concerned that is not a platform for Hamas but a shield behind which it can hide.
If there is a ground war, there will be still more civilian deaths. Gaza is already a humanitarian emergency, without the medicines and food it needs; just imagine if there is a simultaneous ground war with that emergency going on. Inevitably, there will be more Israeli military deaths. The IDF is brave, skilled, well equipped and technically proficient, but in the congested, rubble-strewn debris of Gaza, a ground war is not likely to lend itself to heavy armour or technical superiority. It will be infantry-led: boots on the ground. Never forget that in the last month of World War II, in the debris of Berlin the Red Army lost 80,000 men and suffered 300,000 casualties. I do not say this in order to sit with the ease that the noble Lord, Lord Howard, mentioned, all those miles away, because I do not understand or know the tactics and operations the Israelis might decide upon, but I alert your Lordships to the awful possibilities that arise.
There are also grave questions—what follows invasion? What constitutes success? What is the exit plan? We have found that, compared with getting out, getting in is very easy indeed. Getting out is the difficult part. Finally, after the final victory what is the political alternative on offer? In the absence of that political alternative—and I, like the Minister, believe that it is a two-state solution—violence will surely return. It may not be tomorrow or next year, but it will come back. If, as is said, nature abhors a vacuum, terrorism and violence do not: they love a vacuum. These are the crucial questions that have to be addressed, even in the midst of the awful situation we find ourselves in at present. None of them reduces Israel’s right to self-defence or justice; it deserves both of those. None of them will diminish Israel’s determination, I am sure, but they all suggest that that determination should be tempered, above all, by wisdom.
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