My Lords, from these Benches I also thank the Minister and the Foreign Secretary for the Statement he gave in the House of Commons. As the noble Lord, Lord Collins, said, the people of Ukraine will know that there is unanimity across all corners of the Chambers in our Parliament in our continuing support for their steadfastness. I also associate myself with the questions that the noble Lord, Lord Collins, asked regarding the reconstruction and recovery conference.
Notwithstanding the reports that the West’s intelligence services may have known for a number of weeks that a move from the Wagner Group was imminent, or indeed that Russian intelligence services either knew about it
and did not tell Putin or did not know about it themselves—we shall no doubt learn—the weekend’s events were extraordinary to observe. As the Minister rightly said, they are at the very least a very significant counternarrative to the Putin regime’s suggested reasons as to why the illegal invasion of Ukraine took place.
Secretary Blinken said yesterday that US officials spoke to their Russian counterparts at the weekend concerning the safety of US nationals. I am glad that the Statement referred to the fact that COBRA had been convened, but will the Minister inform us whether there has been direct communication with Russian officials by British officials to stress the need for the safety of British nationals within Russia? On a number of occasions the Minister has called for awareness by all British nationals within Russia for their own safety and security, but when there is chaos and internal division on the scale that we saw at the weekend this must heighten concern for all those British nationals who are living in Russia.
A strong Putin has clearly been a menace to UK interests; a weakened one is a real danger. Whatever the motive of the terrorist Prigozhin’s actions, Putin’s sovereignty as leader of his country is now doubted and his position is unquestionably weakened. As the noble Lord, Lord Collins, has highlighted, the jarring juxtaposition of his calculation that Ukraine would fall within 48 hours and his now having to operate defences for his own capital draws a stark contrast between the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the weakness of Putin’s regime.
Given Putin’s positioning on Belarus and the use of President Lukashenko as what an opposition leader has called a postman between him and Prigozhin, and the belligerent language on the position of nuclear weapons, it is even more important to ensure that dialogue restarts on the nuclear states and the posture that they all have.
Can the Minister reassure me that the UK will continue to seek dialogue from all nuclear powers? If a state with such a nuclear arsenal as Russia can be shaken by an internal mutiny of this scale, it must concern the entire world. I agree that there is little to be gained in speculation on what comes next, but as Ed Lucas said on Radio 4 yesterday in a very powerful interview, we must accelerate discussions on what may be a post-Putin scenario, because, as some observers have said, the situation would not necessarily be better. As obvious cracks exist in his leadership, and how deep and far they will go we do not yet know, one thing for certain is that things will not be the same. Prigozhin and Putin consider themselves masters of the dark arts, but they have both miscalculated, which could be a danger not only to Europe but to the wider international community.
I shall repeat what I have done every month since last February—to call for the proscription of the Wagner Group—but in the context of what seems to be now a clear approach to absorb Wagner into the Russian military, this is inevitably going to be much harder. What is the Government’s assessment of the Wagner Group, whether it is now formally part of the Russian state and how it will operate in Africa? The Russian Foreign Minister said today, in perhaps
classic threatening terms, that it will continue its role in Africa as “instructors”. Can the Minister give an update with regards to our assessment from working with other partners in Africa on the likely implications of the impact of the Wagner Group?
Finally, I commend the Minister for his work, and that of Foreign Office officials working with our partners, in continuing discussions on the full-scale recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine, which will be necessary for the long term. Can he reassure the House that oversight, accountability and scrutiny in respect of some of the eye-watering sums that will be required for reconstruction are necessary, and that the Ukrainian Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, representing its people, will be at the centre of ensuring that this reconstruction will be delivered in an accountable, transparent and efficient manner? If anything is clear, it is the unity of the Ukrainian people, led now by an increasingly transparent and efficient Government. That cannot be put at risk, because it is the clearest contrast with the instability and lack of consistency in the Russian forces. I hope that that is a lesson that we can learn from the conference, to ensure that the reconstruction is done in a clear and accountable way.