My Lords, the Government’s record on trade is quite dreadful. UK exports are projected to fall by 6.6% this year, which is over £51 billion lost to the UK economy
according to the OBR. The failure to deliver the India trade deal or the US trade deal promised by the end of last year is a significant issue, so it is important to scrutinise what exactly Ministers have agreed to in these talks. The Government have a history of lauding trade deals one minute and then criticising them the next.
As we all know, CPTPP is made up of 11 countries—Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam—but we also know that other countries, including China, have applied to join or expressed an interest in doing so. We are all aware of the developing situation in relation to Taiwan. It is inconceivable that there would not be economic consequences should tensions continue to escalate in the way some fear they might. Can the Minister let the House know, as far as he is able today, whether our involvement with CPTPP might affect the UK’s response? What is the UK’s position on the application of China to be part of CPTPP?
The UK will be the first new member since the bloc was established in 2018, and the first European member. The Government say that CPTPP membership brings a range of benefits, including lowering trade barriers to a dynamic region. Accession also forms part of the Government’s Indo-Pacific tilt set out in the integrated review. However, the UK already has bilateral agreements with nine of the 11 CPTPP members.
Over the year to September 2022, the UK exported £60.6 billion of goods and services to the CPTPP countries, which is 7.8% of the UK total, and imported £50.2 billion, or 5.9%, so the economic benefits appear at this stage to be relatively small. In fact, the Government’s own assessment tells us that the long-run increase in GDP will be 0.08%. Can the Minister confirm that the figure of 0.08% is correct?
As part of the Spring Budget, the OBR forecast that, in 2023, UK exports are set to fall by 6.6%. That is a hit of over £51 billion to the UK economy. Can the Minister explain why this has happened? The Prime Minister wants us all to be better at maths, so can the Minister lead by example and tell us what proportion of that loss he thinks this deal is going to replace?
Other countries joining CPTPP have negotiated safeguards and put in place support for their domestic producers. For example, New Zealand and Australia have put side letters in place to opt out of the dispute mechanism. Is the UK going to do this and if not, why not?
There needs to be as close to a level playing field as possible, especially on issues such as workers’ rights but also environmental protections, safety and animal welfare. How can Ministers assure us that the highest possible standards are agreed and implemented, so that UK workers are operating on a fair playing field and workers internationally do not become exploited? On the environment, have conditions been put in place to address concerns around the import of palm oil, which has been linked to deforestation?
What consultation has been undertaken with the devolved Governments to assess their views on negotiating outcomes and how will they be involved in the ratification process? Importantly, what detailed assurances can the Government provide that the CPTPP will not undermine the Windsor Framework, given the closeness of standards regimes and the green lane system?
What safeguards have been secured for UK farmers and what support will the Government offer to our agricultural sector on exports to CPTPP countries, particularly given the strong feeling there is that Ministers sold out our farmers to get the Australia deal over the line? The RSPCA has made it clear that the CPTPP has no explicit language on animal welfare, so what safeguards have the Government put in place to ensure that animal welfare is maintained for products imported to the UK?
Can the Minister also update the House on the progress of negotiations with India and the United States? Is it correct that negotiations with those countries will not even start until 2025?
The reason I have asked a lot of questions—I accept that—is that the problem here is detail. It is very important but very thin on the ground at the moment, and I am afraid that the Government do not have the best track record in supporting UK producers on those issues. There absolutely is an opportunity here, but there is risk too. We do not want to find ourselves again in a position where the Government make an agreement without fully understanding the consequences.