First, I want to say how delighted I am to follow the excellent maiden speech of my noble friend Lady Bray. I very much congratulate her and, given her illustrious career, I am sure she has much to contribute to this House. I look forward to being her colleague for many years to come—although I am not sure whether that is a threat or a promise.
Moreover, I wholly concur with my noble friend’s comments on the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill. We left the EU over three years ago and the transition period ended over two years ago. It is surely right that British authorities should be able to decide which rules they wish to retain, scrap or change
for the benefit of the country. I do note the concerns over parliamentary scrutiny that have been expressed here this afternoon.
The Government’s policy paper The Benefits of Brexit, issued in January 2022, discussed the potential new freedoms. It said:
“We now have the opportunity to set ourselves apart and deliver bespoke UK-orientated regulation that is primarily focused on delivering growth, innovation and competition while minimising burdens on business.”
I pretty well agree with that. The Chancellor’s Edinburgh reforms relating to financial services, part enabled by Brexit, and the Financial Services and Markets Bill, are also encouraging developments.
To put the Bill in a wider context, quite simply, we now have freedoms that we did not have in the EU, and not just regulatory freedoms. Trade is clearly, potentially, a significant winner. The free trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand are our first “from scratch” FTAs in over 50 years; I remember 50 years ago. And membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership—try saying that when you cannot speak—currently being negotiated, should deliver notable benefits.
If I may be allowed to digress into broader economic issues, there are, of course, many who voice concerns over the economic impact of Brexit. It is reasonable to suggest that the introduction of various trade restrictions following Brexit has dampened trade; but the trade data are not easy to interpret—and my goodness me, have I spent my life doing that. The extended lockdowns, supply chain disruptions and the global recession have had a major impact on trade, and data collection changes by HMRC have muddied the waters even further. But the latest data from the ONS—the Office for National Statistics—show that goods trade picked up very strongly in 2022, despite Brexit, after weakness in 2020 and 2021.
Concerning the economy more generally, I remember well the Treasury and the Bank of England uttering dire warnings about Brexit’s impact back in 2016; and the IMF and OECD chimed in. Suffice to say, “Project Fear” did not materialise, but identifying Brexit’s economic impact now is fraught with difficulties, not least because of the disruptive lockdowns and the sharp increases in energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Any assessments, therefore, must be treated with the greatest caution. Let us note that the OBR’s much-quoted 4% negative impact on productivity is basically an assumption based on external forecasts. I suggest that the analysis of data outturns is potentially a more constructive way forward. OECD data show that the UK and Germany have grown at very similar rates since 2016: faster than Italy, a bit slower than France. That does not suggest a major Brexit hit.
In the meantime, I look forward to Brexit’s potential benefits, including those flowing from the retained EU law Bill—that is why I support it—and, indeed, the major savings on our contributions to the EU.
6.49 pm