My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who have contributed to the discussion on these two amendments. I want the House to understand that I share noble Lords’ concerns about pensioner poverty, and assure the House today that we are committed to ensuring economic security at every stage of their life, including when they reach retirement.
The triple lock improves incomes for current and future pensioners. Auto-enrolment into workplace pensions and action on fuller working lives will also help people towards the income that they aspire to in later life. Pension credit provides an important safety net for pensioners on low incomes. As I mentioned in our earlier debate on the amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Addington, that safety net is currently nearly £10 per week higher for a single pensioner, and nearly £15 per week higher for a pensioner couple, than it would otherwise have been if we had just increased it in line with earnings since 2010. Material deprivation among pensioners is at a record low, and the absolute poverty rate is lower than in 2010.
In the long term, it is this Government’s reform to the state and private pension systems—including the introduction of the new state pension in 2016—that will improve outcomes for all, and particularly help to reduce gender inequality in retirement income. Over 3 million women stand to receive an average of £550 more per year by 2030 after recent reforms to the state pension alone.
Under the new state pension, outcomes are projected to equalise for men and women by the early 2040s, over a decade earlier than under the old system. For future pensioners, auto-enrolment into workplace pensions has transformed pension saving for millions of workers. Our employer-led strategy on fuller working lives aims to maximise the labour market opportunities for people to earn and save for longer.
Amendment 3 prevents a draft uprating order from being laid before Parliament unless the Secretary of State has laid before Parliament
“a report containing an assessment of the existing levels of pensioner poverty in each of the regions and nations of Great Britain”,
and made
“a statement outlining the expected impact of the draft order on pensioners with the lowest incomes.”
With respect to subsection (a) of her amendment, the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, will be aware that my department publishes annual estimates of pensioner poverty at a regional level in the Households Below Average Income series.
I turn to subsection (b) of Amendment 3, and will address Amendment 4 at the same time. Amendment 3(b) would require a statement outlining the expected impact of the draft order on pensioners with the lowest incomes. Amendment 4 would require the Secretary of State to report on the impact of the Bill and of the triple lock on pensioner poverty, with reference to women. The provisions in the Bill can only be used to increase the rates of state pension and certain other pensioner benefits, so its effects on pensioner incomes, and therefore pensioner poverty, can only be positive. However, I am sorry to inform noble Baronesses and noble Lords that we do not believe a report of the sort outlined in these amendments could be made with an acceptable degree of analytical robustness.
To make an assessment relating to how many pensioners might have their income lifted above the various low-income levels, assumptions would need to made about how each individual pensioner’s income will change in future. This would require making assumptions about, for example, how earnings for pensioners will change, or trends in the rate of return and drawdown of income from investments. These projected incomes would then need to be compared to projections of the various income thresholds.
The relative poverty low-income threshold in a particular year is determined by the increase or decrease in median income across all individuals in the UK. Forecasting a relative income threshold requires making assumptions about how the net income of every individual in society will change, not just of those above state pension age. Each individual’s total net income is influenced by how every different source of income, including their earnings, and their costs, such as housing costs, may change in future. Making assumptions about future changes in net income for individuals involves complex interactions between income and outgoings.
For absolute poverty, the threshold is increased each year by inflation during that year. As demonstrated in recent months, inflation is currently extremely volatile and there is a high level of uncertainty about what its level is likely to be over the next few years. In the current circumstances, with a higher level of uncertainty around the economy than usual, it is impossible to forecast individual pensioner incomes or the various low-income poverty thresholds with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Therefore, there is a very high risk that any analysis seeking to forecast the number of pensioners moving above these projected poverty thresholds is highly likely to be misleading.
I note, however, that my department collects and publishes a wide range of data in this policy area, such as national statistics on the number and percentage of pension-age women on low incomes. This is published annually in the report on households below average incomes. The last publication covered data for 2018-19, and trends over time can be identified from this source. These trends are an important element in policy-making in the department, such as that which led to the state and private pension reforms I mentioned earlier.
The noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, raised pensioner poverty. I am assured that since 2009-10, material deprivation for pensioners has fallen from 10% to 6% and that there are 100,000 fewer pensioners in absolute poverty before and after housing costs. To be clear, in 2021 we are forecast to spend over £126 billion a year on pensioners, including £102 billion on the state pension.
The noble Baroness also raised the Independent Age report. The figures in Independent Age’s latest report are based on assumptions about the relationship between healthcare outcomes and income and rely on survey data. We know that pension credit is often underreported in survey data; unfortunately this makes it inherently difficult to categorise groups based on receipt of pension credit or to identify pensioners who may be entitled to pension credit but who, for whatever reason, are not claiming it.
The noble Lord, Lord Shipley, asked what the Government are doing about women and the gender gap. While the triple lock continues to improve incomes for current and future pensioners, in the long term it is reforms to the pension system that will improve outcomes for women and reduce the gap.
I move to the issue of pension credit, which all noble Lords raised very eloquently and clearly. In response to the question of the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, yesterday, I agreed to go back to the department and relay the sentiments; while I cannot give your Lordships the information on a campaign you require today, I can give an utter assurance that I will go back to the department to relay the points that have been made.
The right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans asked about an impact assessment. For pensioner incomes, assumptions would need to be made about how each individual pensioner’s income will change in the future, which would require making assumptions, as I have said, about many things, such as earnings for pensioners, change in the rate of return and drawdown of income. This is most difficult.
The noble Lord, Lord Addington, and the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of St Albans quite rightly raised a point about intergenerational fairness and questioned why we should keep the triple lock for pensioners when working-age people are only getting CPI increases. We have recently seen rises in the living standards of pensioners, but we must remember that not all pensioners are in the same position: over a million current pensioners rely solely on their state income. We must not forget that today’s working-age people are tomorrow’s pensioners, and future generations of pensioners will also benefit from the way the state pension is uprated today.
I was asked how we intend to uprate pension credit. Without this Bill, the core component of pension credit—the standard minimum guarantee—will be frozen in 2021. The decision on how to uprate the standard minimum guarantee will be made during the Secretary of State’s uprating review and announced in November. It would not be right to pre-empt the outcome of that review. Taking into account the points raised, I ask the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.