My Lords, at Second Reading I mentioned my “I told you so” speech that I have already prepared for when the Government have to come back and seek some additional time to negotiate the future relationship, the complexity of which we have heard about from my noble friend and others in this debate.
I am not an expert on negotiations, but I hear from those who are that they are not simple. They are brutal, according to my noble friend Lord Liddle in the last debate; tough and vigorous was how the noble Lord, Lord Wilson, described them; and fixed deadlines tie one’s hands too much. Indeed, my noble friend Lord Davies of Stamford said about fixed deadlines at Second Reading on Monday that,
“the one thing you do not want to do is to tell your opponent that you are in a terrible hurry. It also means that you cannot use certain ploys … You cannot walk out for two or three weeks … You cannot try to halt proceedings while you undertake a study of a particular subject”—[Official Report, 13/1/20; col. 513.]
which could be a very difficult subject. The noble Lord, Lord Boswell, described this as the high-wire approach to negotiations.
For a Government who have resisted sensible amendments on the basis that they would tie the hands of negotiators, the prohibition on extending the transition period seems a bit nonsensical. Let me be clear, since not all reports have been entirely accurate,
that we know we are leaving the European Union at 11 pm on 31 January. Our objection to the clause is nothing to do with the date of Brexit but is because it places an unnecessary constraint on our negotiators. Why would we tie the hands of our negotiators if another few hours or days could get a better deal over the line? Our EU Committee says that concluding talks by December will be “extremely challenging” and warns—this is something we need to know—that should no extension be agreed by July, it is not clear there is any legal route under the withdrawal agreement to extend it, whether by days or weeks, for whatever essential reason. So that one-line Bill may not actually work: it may work in this Parliament but not on the other side of the negotiations.
Not only that, but the new free trade agreement might need its own implementation period. Processes for customs and VAT, physical checks, rules of origin regulations and schedules—which will be enormous, with all the paperwork—licences and permits, contracts and new systems will need to be set up. Mrs May understood this well and chose the December 2020 date accordingly, but assumed it would be 20 months from when we left. It is now only 11 months from when we leave to the December deadline, but with equally challenging demands—indeed, probably more challenging, given the different regulatory and technical rules on opposite sides of the Irish Sea as a result of the new withdrawal deal. It is very hard to understand why the date for the end of the implementation period has not been changed now that we are leaving in January 2020, rather than in March 2019. The original timeline would have allowed the implementation of the deal, and we now simply do not allow for that.
There is an understandable fear that the hard deadline is not to force the EU to move at speed but because, as the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, who is not in her place at the moment, helpfully clarified on Monday, a time limit has an “implicit no-deal outcome”. That may be what it is all about, as the noble Baroness, Lady Bennett, and my noble friend Lord Davies have suggested.
One small point on a different issue is that while the Bill disapplies CRaG, it has been pointed out by legal experts in Scotland, I think, that this does not seem to apply to the related EEA, EFTA and Swiss agreements, which were implemented under Clause 6. This means that CRaG continues to apply in those circumstances, so time might be needed for these agreements to pass through CRaG. Will the Minister respond to that issue raised by the Scottish Law Society?
The Government’s majority of 80 leads them to think they do not need to take account of this House. I do not understand why they still seem to need to take account of the ERG, for whom this clause has clearly been inserted. This is unnecessary, as we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Newby. Removing Clause 33 does not undermine the manifesto, because we can still leave and end the implementation period on 31 December. However, as I also said earlier in the week, we will let the Government take ownership of this. We will leave the EU shortly, but on their head be it if the negotiations mean they have to come back to ask for more time. In that case, we will give it with a smile, but also possibly with an “I told you so” note.