My Lords, as a number of noble Lords have acknowledged in the House today, the gracious Speech states:
“The integrity and prosperity of the United Kingdom is of the utmost importance”
to the Government. As a unionist, and as somebody who served as a special adviser to the past six Conservative Secretaries of State for Northern Ireland since 1991, I warmly welcome that commitment. But to listen to some commentators, and indeed some Members of this House, one could be forgiven for believing that the union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is entering its dying days, and that, following the election results, a united Ireland is now inevitable. I strongly disagree with that proposition. Allow me therefore for a moment to put the election results in Northern Ireland into some perspective, because we need to look beyond the headlines.
Yes, there are now for the first time more nationalist MPs than unionist MPs in the other place, yet the combined Sinn Féin and SDLP vote was still just under 38%, while the Sinn Féin vote fell by more than the DUP vote. While at the March 2017 Assembly election, Sinn Féin was just over 1,000 votes behind the DUP, at this election it was 60,000 votes behind. It is true that at 43%, the combined unionist vote was at an historic low. The real winners were the SDLP in South Belfast and Foyle, where it hammered Sinn Féin, and the Alliance Party, which gained a seat in North Down. Yet not everybody who votes SDLP necessarily has a united Ireland at the top of their agenda, and if anybody is suggesting for one moment that the people of North Down vote Alliance for a united Ireland, they simply do not understand Northern Ireland.
The election was about a combination of issues: abstentionism, Brexit, the absence of devolved government and deteriorating public services, in which the most pro-united Ireland party, and the one campaigning for a border poll, saw its vote fall sharpest. I remain confident, therefore, that if there were a border poll—I am not advocating one—there would remain a clear majority for the United Kingdom.
However, if the union is not in immediate peril, there are certainly pressures, as a number of noble Lords have alluded to. To counter them, four things need to happen. First, Stormont needs to be restored at the earliest opportunity. Devolved, power-sharing government is in the best interests of both Northern Ireland and the union as a whole. I wish the Secretary of State well in his efforts in the discussions that are currently taking place at Stormont.
Secondly, Brexit needs to be achieved in ways that genuinely ensure no border on the island of Ireland and no border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. I welcome the Government’s manifesto commitments in these areas and their commitment to ensuring unfettered access for goods moving within our United Kingdom.
Thirdly, although the debate around Brexit has certainly energised nationalism, the response within unionism has so far been muted. This needs to change. There needs to be a conversation within unionism, extending beyond politicians, about how we articulate a modern, moderate and compelling case for the union that can appeal across the community and across all generations. It is a conversation that has to have as its starting point two facts: that the Northern Ireland of today is very different to the Northern Ireland even of 1998 when the Belfast agreement was reached; and that the future stability of the union will increasingly rest on those from moderate nationalist backgrounds accepting that their best interests continue to lie within the United Kingdom.
Fourthly, the UK Government need to begin soberly and sensibly setting out the benefits that Northern Ireland gains from membership of the United Kingdom, which remain huge. Historically, the Northern Ireland Office has been reluctant to do so; this needs to change. The Government need to become a genuine persuader for the union.
The Conservative manifesto for Northern Ireland, in which I confess to having had a small hand, contained a commitment to
“inclusive and modern unionism that affords equal respect to all traditions and parts of the community”
and expressed an “unshakeable” belief that the four constituent parts of the United Kingdom are truly stronger and better together. As the United Kingdom embarks on a new chapter in our history, it falls to a Conservative and Unionist Government with a renewed mandate and a substantial majority to make a reality of those words.
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