My Lords, in this House, late last year, before I was rudely interrupted by a general election, I expressed my judgment that we were in danger of sleepwalking towards the break-up of the United Kingdom. I said then that I thought the combination of Boris Johnson and a hard Brexit would fan the flames of separatism. Nothing has changed my mind on that; indeed, the situation has got worse, because now the British electorate have clearly shown that they will not support—and I believe will never support—a Labour leadership that is unpatriotic, profligate, dogmatic and untrustworthy when it comes to the economy and security and, God forbid, even our Jewish minority in this country. That has removed the prospect of an alternative to the Johnson Government, which will have an effect in Scotland as well.
Of course, we can argue that it manifestly would not be in the interests of Scotland to leave the United Kingdom. First, there is a massive deficit if it separates—greater than Italy and greater than the south of Europe. The result of that would be austerity far greater than anything we have seen in the past few years, including in the health service, education and so on. Secondly, a separate Scottish economy would have to use the pound sterling. It would be, as Ireland was in the early years, a slave economy to England. Thirdly, the idea that there would be a re-accession to the European Union by the separate state of Scotland is a pipe dream, particularly when we consider that that requires unanimity and consider the countries in Europe that have their own separate problems among the ethnic minorities—witness Spain with the Catalans and the Basques.
On any rational grounds, it is manifestly not in the interests of Scotland to separate. But here is the rub: decisions are not always made on rational grounds.
They are made on the grounds of emotion, frustration, ideology and spirit. Witness the decision of the English electorate to leave Europe. I understand the cuts in services and the additional pressure on services from immigration. I also understand the growing sense of English nationalism. But that decision was not one of enlightened self-interest. I accept it, but I do not have to agree with it. It was not in the interests of the English people. We must not delude ourselves that what is sufficient for the English, even in the face of rationality, will be insufficient for the Scots. I believe that there is a great danger that that will be missed because of the majority that the Prime Minister—and we congratulate him—achieved in the last election.
There are a mere 16 words in the Queen’s Speech on the most central of all issues:
“The integrity and prosperity of the United Kingdom is of the utmost importance to my Government.”
That is it. It is of such utmost importance to the Government that it merited no further comment in the Queen’s Speech. There were a few vague references in the background briefing. It was not even mentioned in the House of Commons Library briefing. The most central aspect, which was supposed to underpin our leaving of Europe—the restoration of sovereignty to the United Kingdom and the integrity of that kingdom —is not even mentioned, other than in those 16 words in the Queen’s Speech. I say to the House—and I say it with no great joy because all my life I have argued for the retention of Scotland inside the United Kingdom because it is in its interests—that the integrity of the United Kingdom should not have been reduced to a background briefing document. It should have been at the forefront of the problems that we now face and the challenges being answered in the Queen’s Speech.
This issue will continue to fester. The Prime Minister likes to say that he has an oven-ready solution, but this dish will simmer for quite a while. It will not be done by the end of this month. While it is simmering, the very unity of the United Kingdom will increasingly be threatened, and I suspect that when it is cooked, the proof of that particular pudding will be that it is unpalatable for a lot of us who believe in the United Kingdom.
5.20 pm