The Minister has done very well. I do not like all the answers, but he has done very well at trying to address many of the points. I will just pick up a couple of them.
First, can he tell us who will deliver the support? Will it be Jobcentre Plus staff or others, and what are the resource implications for the public sector? On the business case, if the £15 million and the light-touch control group are in the original business case, what about the rest of it? I may have misunderstood his comments on that, but where is that to be found?
As for tracking outcomes, obviously RTI works for those who are paying tax and national insurance, but for this to work properly the Government would also need to track people who were not to be found on the system and to find out why not. I am sure the Minister would rebut this, but there is a growing concern—he will have seen both recent media reports and the work of the Work and Pensions Committee—that the ways
in which sanctions are being imposed at the moment are completely arbitrary. The only success measure for Jobcentre Plus staff is how many people are driven off the benefit rolls rather than into work. No one bothers to find out the numbers, but the suggestion is that only about one-fifth of people leaving benefits go into work—nobody knows what happens to the rest.
This was a real issue, as I am sure the Minister is aware, in one well known phase of welfare reform in the United States. Researchers tracked people longitudinally and found that a lot of them had simply ended up dropping out of the system completely. At this stage I am not making a value judgment about that, but for this to be properly effective the Government would need to follow those people through and find out what had happened to them to understand what the consequences of that were.
The Minister mentioned skills and the kind of support that is available. If one of the barriers to someone’s progression that is identified is a lack of skills, will the pilots be able to provide skills, or resources to enable people to get skills, which might enable them to earn more and break free of the threshold that would be constrained by this? I also asked whether the same income threshold would be applied for entry to or exit from all the pilots. Is that one of the things that is going to be flexed in any way? Is it the same for all of them?
On the question of ethics, the Minister said at the start that these regulations comprise strictly defined limits. In a manner of speaking they do, but only in the sense that I am strictly defined by the law of gravity, which still gives me quite a lot of latitude in how I go about behaving. The Minister also said that he will give us no information on numbers. Presumably, that could theoretically mean that the entire universal credit population could be put into this without any need for further recourse to Parliament. Is that right? In other words, when does this stop being a pilot? I am trying to establish whether the regulations were really designed to be able to pilot something. The scale of this is such that I am beginning to wonder whether Parliament would really see this as being a pilot. Although I am very glad that the Minister is going back to the SSAC, there is no obvious way to scrutinise this here. Will he give some more thought to that?
Finally, I want to clarify something relating to the sanctions. If the Minister is saying that the requirements will be no worse for people in work than for those out of work, my response would be that I would hope not, otherwise the incentive for getting a job would seem to be rather small. However, that presumably means that somebody could lose all their universal credit for three years for a failure to comply with a brand new requirement exercised by his staff—something that has never been done before. Is the Minister confident about that? I realise he has said that nobody will be sanctioned without good cause, but we both know that there are plenty of examples of people who have been simply because there is a significant amount of error in the way that the guidance has been applied. Cases are constantly being brought forward, and he will be aware of that. How will he check up on that? How will he quality-test the nature of that?
I am aware that I have asked a lot of quite specific questions. I would be grateful if the Minister, with his normal customary kindness, would allow his officials to go through the record and write to me on anything that has not been picked up.