My Lords, in thanking the Minister for that explanation, I am expressing more than just the usual courtesy. As has been alluded to, the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee commented on the very wide nature of the powers that the Government are seeking through these regulations and the remarkable paucity of information in any of the material available to us about the way in which they intend to use them. Therefore, although I am very grateful, and without sounding too churlish, I would rather have had some of that information so that I could have considered it more carefully before getting to the stage where we are asked to consider the regulations. I will do my best, but I may end up intervening in the Minister’s reply. I hope that he will bear with me if I have misunderstood some of the information that he gave us today. However, I thank him for it.
The Minister mentioned that these powers are very wide, and that is certainly true. This is quite an interesting point for us to be at. We discussed the question of in-work conditionality extensively when the Bill was going through this place, particularly in Committee. One reason that it is so worthy of attention is that it is very new. The Minister mentioned that it is new internationally, but certainly people currently in work are going to get a bit of a shock. At the moment, if you have been on benefits and you get a job, you do not expect the department to ring you up at work saying, “Come and talk to me because you’re not working enough”. I think that people who feel that they have escaped the tender ministrations of the jobcentre are going to be a little taken aback when they find that it starts following them to work.
I wonder what thought the Government have given to this cultural shift and how they are going to engage with people who, when they think they have done the brilliant thing of getting a job, will find that it might be a job but it is not good enough, not big enough or not well paid enough. Under the current system, if someone is working at least 16 hours a week, they can claim tax credits. However, under universal credit there will be no minimum hours requirement, which is the Government’s reason for introducing conditionality for people in work.
I should like some clarification on how this is going to work. Some points have been touched on by the noble Lords, Lord German and Lord Farmer; others have not. First, in the various pilots, will there be the same level of income which triggers entry to or exit from the scheme? I am also interested in hearing the answer to the question from the noble Lord, Lord German, on what that level of income is. Will the income threshold be the same for a household or a benefit unit—the rather ugly phrase favoured by the DWP? In other words, is it a threshold for each individual in a household of, say, two or more adults, or is it for the whole household? For example, if one person in a couple were earning more than the threshold for two individuals, would the second person then not be under any pressure to increase their hours, change their working pattern or increase their income?
Next, the Explanatory Memorandum states that the DWP will impose,
“different sets of requirements on different groups of claimants selected for the pilot”.
The Minister began to outline how that might happen, but the committee’s report flagged up the ethics of an approach which deliberately seeks to test different approaches to claimants simply to work out the behavioural impacts. The noble Lord, Lord Farmer, commended the benefits of randomised control trials to test the evidence if done in a low-risk, controlled environment. However, the problem here is that the risks are not merely to the resources invested by the state but the impact on the individuals. Can the Minister tell us what discussions the department had about the ethics of that? I will come on to the question of sanctions in a moment. In a randomised control trial of, say, pharmaceutical drugs, there can come a point where a trial is stopped because it becomes clear that the evidence is very strong one way or the other and, as the drug is so effective or so ineffective, allowing a control group to carry on without it or continuing to give it to the group being tested would simply be unethical. Has any consideration been given to how the ethics would be weighted as the requirements are imposed and the evidence starts to come in?
Next, I turn to the numbers, which the noble Lord, Lord German, began to prod. I am very interested in them. I think that we all want to know what the denominator is. Are the numbers going to change? If we start off with, say, 15,000 out of 55,000, is that going to change proportionately? Will we see a different proportion of the universal credit claimant base involved all the way through? What proportion of that 55,000 will be eligible for the scheme? It presumably includes some people who would not, for a variety of reasons, be eligible, so that is not necessarily the denominator. What is the denominator? This was something that the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee specifically asked the Minister to tell us, and I shall be very interested to hear what he can tell us about this.
I am also interested in having more information about the control groups. The Minister mentioned one control group, which I think he said would get just the occasional phone call. How big will that control group be, and can he tell us more about it? Will it be spread right across the country? Will it cover the full range of categories of claimants who will be covered by the other pilots? Will that change as different categories of claimant come on-stream with universal credit? That question applies also to the pilots. Will the pilots cover all the different categories of claimant as different kinds of people are brought on?
Secondly, on the flexibility of trends, I understand why the Government want a flexible power to tweak things as they go. However, coming back to the points made by the noble Lord, Lord Farmer, I want to understand how that impacts on the Government’s ability properly to evaluate the evidence. If you try to compare the effectiveness of a strategy with the control group but you are constantly tweaking things, how good will the data gathering be? How well will the department be able to understand the causality to enable it properly to understand what happens? The state
generally does not always have a great track record on this. If we are to spend all this time and money on a trial, as well as put people through it, we want to be really sure that the findings are robust. I am very glad that the Minister committed to publishing the findings, but we want to have confidence and know the study is replicable. If it is tweaked too often or becomes too different, it will be quite hard to evaluate that. Could the Minister explain that?
Next, could the Minister say a little more about what kind of support will be offered to people in work? He indicated what kind of pressure or interventions there are in terms of encouraging them to come in, but what help will they then be given? I seem to recall that this was advocated at one point by saying, “People get lots of help to develop their careers if they are high-flying executives, but get nothing if they are lower than that”. What actual help will be offered to them? Will it be mentoring or work coaching?
Then there is the voluntary or otherwise nature of this, which was flagged up before. Again, will any of the pilots make this a voluntary option or will it always be compulsory? This point was raised in the other place by the Conservative MP Nigel Mills, who in fact suggested that the Government trial both. He also asked how soon after taking a job in-work conditionality would kick in. For example, if I got myself a job for 16 hours a week, it goes really well and I have been out of work for a long time, presumably the department would not ring me up on week two and say, “No, tough: you now need a better job on 30 hours a week or one that is better paid”. How long will a claimant get in a job before in-work conditionality kicks in?
Next, and this is a really important point, can the Minister tell us more about how caring responsibilities will be taken into account? This is something that exercised the Grand Committee considerably when the Bill went through the House. I have met many people in this circumstance. The noble Lord is aware that in the past I ran a charity that worked with single parents. We ran programmes helping people into work. We often found that lone parents took a job, say on 16 hours a week. One of the reasons employers liked these people was that they stayed in the job a long time so the employers had much lower turnover than with some other employees. One of the reasons that the lone parents stayed a long time was that they had found an employer who enabled them to combine their job with their families. For example, the employer would be flexible if occasionally a child was sick of if the employee had to leave early because a problem arose at school. The employee would be very loyal to that employer and stay for a long time because it worked for both of them. However, it meant that they might work fewer hours than they were capable of. I am just concerned—and raised this in Grand Committee at the time—about what happens to those people and what pressure they will be put under. Presumably, we would not want to see a lone parent who had been in a very successful job for maybe 10 years but at 16 hours a week being pushed into giving it up to take a better paid but less flexible job that she might have to give up anyway or that could be less secure. How will the Government deal with something like that?
Also, how will they consider the impact on childcare? I raised the issue in Grand Committee of a lone parent of a 13 year-old who began to have problems at school. That parent had taken a job of 25 hours a week because that enabled her to get home in time to make sure that the teenager came home from school and was not out on the streets having “difficulties”. If she were required—the implication is that she now would be—she would have to take a job of, say, 35 hours a week at minimum wage. She could also be forced to do 90 minutes’ travel either way because that is what the guidance says. Those are then very significant hours, and getting childcare for a 13 year-old is not easy. It is not often available, and it is very hard to get them to accept a child like that. So how much flexibility will be there?
I do not apologise for the large number of questions as these are very significant matters. Next is the issue of sanctions. Is it intended to use the full range of sanctions available? In other words, could somebody lose all their universal credit for three years for failing to take action that they were advised was necessary to increase their hours or earnings, such as, for example, that lone parent? What if someone is concerned about jeopardising their existing job for other reasons? It has been confirmed that universal credit claimants will have to take a zero-hours contract, although not an exclusive one. If they were, for example, required to take additional hours at short notice but were also expected to take a job interview elsewhere or meet their adviser to think about getting a different job, they could be at risk of jeopardising things.
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We have had problems in the past where a Work Programme adviser, for example, asked someone to come to an interview, and they were not able to do so for a very good reason—they might have had a job interview or they might have been asked to work extra hours—but they were still sanctioned and had to appeal. They would be successful, but the Work Programme adviser had to say, “Even though you had a perfectly sensible reason—you had a job interview or you were in hospital—I still have to sanction you. You go through an appeal and I am sure that when you get to it, the DWP people will make it okay”. That is hugely stressful and, frankly, a waste of everybody’s time and money. Could the Minister tell us how that will work?
I have some other questions about the scheme. What will be the success measures of the pilots? Is the aim to see people earning more, working more or just stop getting universal credit? Will the DWP be tracking all of those things? For that to work, it would have to track people on what happened to their earnings and working hours, even if they left universal credit altogether. Can the Minister confirm that it will be doing that?
Who will deliver the support? Will it be the jobcentre staff or will it be outside contractors? Can the Minister confirm, for the record, what the resource implications will be? The Explanatory Memorandum states that there is no impact on the public sector. That seems improbable: at least I hope it is improbable. The Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee said:
“It is, in our view, misleading to say there is no impact on the public sector: provision may already have already been set aside for piloting and no additional costs are envisaged, but the testing will cost up to £15 million”.
Could the Minister confirm that?
There have been some issues about the effectiveness and value for money of the various previous labour market trials, and I will not dwell on the private misery pointed out by the National Audit Office, which reckoned that only two of the 14 trials had been seen to be effective. When these regulations were considered in another place, my old friend Stephen Timms asked whether in-work conditionality and the work around it had been included in the strategic business case signed off by the Treasury last autumn or would be included in the outline business case, which we believe is going to be coming in the summer this year. The Minister was unable to answer then, but said that she would look into it. Since there has been a reasonable gap between that committee and this, is the Minister now in a position to provide that information?
There are a large number of questions, and it is quite possible that more might emerge from the Minister’s answers. I will be very grateful if the Minister will do his best to share the answers with the Committee.