My Lords, I start by thanking the Minister for giving us an update on where we are with universal credit—27,000 people and 100 jobcentres. I wonder whether I can tempt him to tell us where we might be by the end of April, for example, with the number of people who are receiving universal credit and the number of jobcentres that are supplying it. It is important to note what progress we are seeing.
In-work progression, which is the target that this pilot and these regulations are trying to attach themselves to, is one of the challenges of the next five years. I believe that we will find that this area requires a great deal of attention. It is an issue that relates to a drop in unemployment, so we have to make sure that those who are in employment are given the best possible hand-up and help. I could not help having a wry smile when my noble friend referred to the way in which DWP does this sort of trialling, saying that it was unique and distinctive. I congratulate him on that because we need to find out how universal credit has been doing. As you find out, you adjust, you change and you move on, rather than having a simple blanket approach, which is a recipe for difficulties in the future.
However, there are issues, and I welcome the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Farmer. I particularly welcome what he said about the wind of change. I wonder whether this is a sign of Harold Macmillan coming back to see us again and a revitalised way of looking at social policy. I raise that as an interesting point.
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In the challenge of finding a way of developing and helping in-work progression, given the flexibility that has been given by these regulations, there are issues which need to be pinned down. As far as I can judge—my noble friend will tell me whether this is right—paragraph 7.1.2 of the Explanatory Memorandum sets out the four areas or themes which will underpin these pilot studies. Is that a suitable balance between sticks and carrots? The detail we are given is quite limited on the support we can offer, the role of employers, the impact of conditionality and using financial levers. In any striving to help people to progress and to develop their income, it is important that there is a range of levers, some of which are going to be sticks and some of which will be carrots. Will my noble friend indicate whether in his view that balance is adequately described?
It is true, as my noble friend said, that there is very limited evidence on what works to help people get improvement in their earnings. Starting early with this challenge as universal credit rolls out is an important way of helping those who are trying to strive and find their way out of in-work poverty.
My question is about who will be selected in the random sampling. Perhaps I have not got this right—my noble friend will correct me—but I understand, for example, that a single claimant who is not responsible for a child or qualifying young person would have to be earning less than £111 a week to receive universal credit, without any housing element. That is the kind of level at which we are trying to assist people so that their earnings rise beyond the figure where they no longer qualify for universal credit. These figures are found in Annexe 1 of the impact assessment on universal credit produced by the Department for Work and Pensions. It has also been uprated. However, I do not know whether it is completely uprated in terms of the current position in relation to universal credit work allowances.
My second point has been alluded to by the noble Lord, Lord Farmer, and is about what sort of people might be included or excluded. Will people with disabilities be included or excluded? One of the challenges this country faces is ensuring that people who have the ability to work but who have disabilities are able to find and get work. It would be useful to know how that category will be determined and whether there will be other exclusions from the random sampling.
Finally, I have a statistical question. I may have heard my noble friend incorrectly, but I thought he said that there could be up to 15,000 people involved in this piloting, testing and trialling work. At the moment there are 27,000 people on universal credit. A pilot of 15,000 out of 27,000 seems an extensive test. It would be more than half the people on universal
credit, which is why I return to my first remark which encouraged my noble friend to tell us where we might be on numbers on universal credit by the end of March.