My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow a speaker who has much long experience in Moscow. I well remember the Soviet invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia and the threats that were made in the last years of the old Soviet Union to what have now become the Baltic states. Nevertheless, in today’s situation, I suggest that we need to be calm and firm. We should work to prevent ill judged adventures which could have very serious consequences.
Ukraine is no banana republic, but rather a country with a population estimated in 2012 to exceed 45 million. It has, alas, suffered poor leadership and much corruption. Looking from the Russian point of view, one can understand their historic connection with Kievan Rus and with the adoption of the Christian faith. The victory at Poltava in Ukraine in the early 18th century marked the end of a major threat from Sweden. Today, many Russians have a strong sense of the near abroad and value having a base at Sevastopol for their Black Sea fleet. None of that, however, justifies attempts to dictate to their nearest neighbour, which has a clear idea of its own identity and, indeed, sought to establish independence between 1917 and 1920. As the noble Lords, Lord Chidgey and Lord Soley, have already mentioned, in 1994 the Budapest memorandum gave Ukraine full recognition and guaranteed its independence. In return, Ukraine gave up any ambition to be armed with nuclear weapons and indeed surrendered its Soviet arsenal. Three years earlier, Crimea had become an autonomous republic within Ukraine. In 2005, that autonomy was modified to provide a permanent share of power for the distinctive Crimean Tatars, who had suffered so heavily under Stalin.
In the present situation, I suggest that we have to find ways for Russia to come back from rash adventures and leave aside any coercion while avoiding loss of face. I believe that the OSCE provides the ideal mechanism. This organisation and its companion, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, stem from the Helsinki agreements of the mid-1970s. It is an intergovernmental body but not a military organisation. It is worth noting that its membership is far larger than that of the European Union. In the past the OSCE did good work in the Baltic states where, as we know, there are sizeable Russian minorities. It tried hard over many years after the civil war in Moldova, where alas things were not helped by having too many mediators.
What was shown in that case, however, was that a mediated peace process was fully compatible with a simultaneous analytical conflict-resolution process. The same combination could happen again in today’s circumstances—if possible, before they become too embittered. NGOs and local government could also help to implement any new agreements that could be reached. The OSCE has the great advantage that it already has observers on the ground in Ukraine, though they have not been allowed to enter Crimea. Seventeen member states are taking part in the monitoring mission. It is also fortunate that the current chairman-in-office of the OSCE is Swiss. I am glad to learn that he has already spoken directly with President Putin.
What would be an acceptable result? First, there should be a democratic Ukraine, able to negotiate its own relations with Russia and the EU. This might include special arrangements: for example, on dual nationality for Russian people in the eastern provinces, as indeed happens in Northern Ireland, and for the Russian language. Secondly, Crimea should be enabled to determine its own future, whether that might be independence or an agreed linkage with either Russia or Ukraine. A velvet divorce, on the lines of the agreed separation of the Czech and Slovak republics, would be a possible way forward. This is something quite different and distinct from the rushed referendum of last Sunday. It is essential to have sufficient time for any popular consultation. The issues must be fully explained, while the voters need time for thought before giving a considered verdict. All military or paramilitary pressure should be excluded. Independent observers should verify the process before, during and after the voting.
There are two well known principles in international law: the territorial integrity of states and the right to self-determination of peoples. Quite often those principles conflict and the art is to reconcile them without resort to violence. Here, religious leaders and other people of good will can help the politicians. Above all, the OSCE holds the key to the peaceful resolution of problems involving national identity and country.
I am a direct descendant of someone who survived the charge of the Light Brigade. That was not a good way to solve things. Do Her Majesty’s Government agree that the Geneva declaration of 2006, which was signed by 42 states, is still relevant? It argued against armed violence and on behalf of human security. In that spirit, will the Government use their best efforts to achieved agreed political solutions?
5.40 pm