My Lords, although I am Lord Warner of Brockley in the London Borough of Lewisham, I do not intend to speak about the Lewisham case.
I am conscious that this is a topic which can rapidly cause eyes to glaze over as we go into some of the processes involved here. At the heart of this there is a fundamental problem which is much deeper and more serious than when the 2006 Act was passed. That was seven years ago. This procedure of trust special administrators was set up to deal with a relatively small number of cases that might come along. It was not a system set up to deal with major overhauls of acute hospitals up and down the country.
We are now in a very different financial situation from when this earlier legislation was going through Parliament. You pays your money and you takes your choice as to who you believe about the black hole that there will be in the NHS finances at the end of this decade. If you want to believe Sir David Nicholson, the outgoing chief executive of NHS England, it will be £30 billion. A number of noble Lords may be shaking their heads because they do not wish to believe him, but he says £30 billion. If you want to believe the Nuffield Trust, it will be somewhere north of £40 billion. If you want to consider the more measured estimate last week from the chief executive of Monitor, it will be £12 billion, but that assumes a level of efficiency savings which seem somewhat like fantasy football in terms of their deliverability. It is likely to be a lot more than £12 billion.
These are numbers which no one was even thinking about when the trust special administrator system was set up. I have some sympathy with the Government’s position because there is no doubt that we have a large and growing number of clinically and financially unsustainable acute trusts. The Government have a real problem that they are trying to tackle. However, I suggest that this particular way of tackling it is not the best way, because it is trying to adapt a system which was produced for a relatively small number of cases into a whole system set of arrangements. It has some curious quirks. It seems to treat clinical commissioning groups which are commissioning from foundation trusts differently from those commissioning from non-foundation trusts. I am not going to risk eyes glazing over by talking about this, but this set of proposals does not seem to treat different clinical commissioning groups in exactly the same way.
We must also start to engage the public in the scale of changes that will have to be made to the NHS in order to make it sustainable. It is not just that black hole issue; it is the clinical sustainability of some of its services. We are already finding difficulty in staffing A&E departments. There is a set of issues around whether the manpower would be sufficient to enable us to keep 24/7 acute specialist services on the same number of sites. I would suggest to the Minister as humbly as I can that you are not going to deal with the scale of the problem with this set of arrangements. For the sorts of reasons that the noble Baroness, Lady Warnock, set out, even if you have this set of arrangements on the statute book, you are going to end up with many cases of Lewisham hospital writ large, dotted around the country. There is nothing in these provisions which really ensures that the wider public debate about the reshaping of these services takes place. They are a recipe for a very large number of one-off local rows on a major scale. The lawyers in this House must be rubbing their hands at the prospect of judicial review because a very likely outcome of all this is a large number of contested claims about the way the exercise has been done. There simply will not be the political cover for TSAs to be bold in their thinking.
The noble Earl said we want them to be able to give very effective consideration to the solutions that are needed. I suggest that if you are a trust special administrator and you think you will be kicked from Land’s End to the north-east because of the controversy around the proposals, that is not likely to produce whole-system changes. We now have to think about reviewing whether the TSA system is fit for purpose and meets the needs of the circumstances we now face. That is why, although I am not normally in favour of wrecking amendments, I agree with my noble friend Lord Hunt’s idea that we should have a pause and think again about the best way to reconfigure hospital services so that politicians and the public can engage with this issue and have the kinds of public debates that we badly need to have if we are to maintain the NHS in anything like the form it is today.