My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for introducing these statutory instruments. He concentrated, as indeed I will, on the uprating of tax credits. He said little about the guardian allowance uprating, which is the only issue that gives rise to the traditional debate between RPI and CPI, which I shall certainly leave aside. Enough has been said about that to expose the Government’s use of that device to extract money from the welfare system.
The noble Lord pointed out in his introductory remarks that the measures that he described were withdrawing a total of £2.7 billion, I think it was, from the pockets of the poorest in this country. These contemptible measures represent a fundamental economic failure and a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of tax credits and of the security system in our economy. He referred extensively to the idea that this was somehow fair. In particular, when addressing the issue of working tax credit he justified what is being done by referring to the personal allowance change, from which the noble Lord himself benefits; from the fuel duty change, from which the noble Lord himself benefits; and from the freezing of council tax, from which the noble Lord himself benefits.
My point relates not to the motivations of the noble Lord but to the fact that these benefits benefit everybody in the economy. The changed personal allowance benefits 24 million people, which is just about every taxpayer, including the noble Lord and me. These measures are no justification whatever for withdrawing support from those who are on the lowest incomes and who need support the most.
I was struck by the table of the decline in benefits that was attached to the Explanatory Memorandum for these measures. The basic element of tax credits is down by £45 in real terms. The second adult element is down by £25 in real terms. The lone parent element is down by £25 in real terms. For child tax credits, the family element is down by £15, the child element is down by £30 and the disabled child element is down by £30. These may seem trivial sums, but for families who are absolutely on the edge of survival they are absolutely fundamental. The £2.7 billion that the Government are extracting from this part of our community in order to attempt to reduce the deficit is a direct attack on targeted benefits that were actually associated with the poorest in our community.
The Government have also, perhaps unintentionally, weakened a fundamental aspect of the Chancellor’s economic policy. The Chancellor has referred on several occasions to the fact that his measures are designed to attack the structural deficit and not the deficit as it occurs from year to year, as it may be affected by fluctuations in economic activity. There, the Chancellor has pointed out, the effects of any decline in activity are mitigated by what are called the automatic stabilisers: the fact that benefits rise automatically as people become more impoverished and are reduced automatically as the economy grows, although the Chancellor has of course not experienced that. Now we are weakening the automatic stabilisers.
Have the Government calculated the effect on the overall multiplier consequences on government expenditure of the weakening of social security payments that we have before us? Can the noble Lord tell us what the overall impact will be of this reduction in spending for the poor on the level of activity in the economy, now that we know, by virtue of the IMF, that the multiplier consequences of reducing government expenditure are much higher than was contained in either the Treasury’s or the OBR’s calculations? Can he tell us the impact of this on the overall level of activity and the consequential impact on the increase in the deficit that these spending changes will bring about? It is a trivial economic error to look at first-round effects and not to look at subsequent consequences on levels of activity and revenue.
We have before us the first step in a steady attack on the welfare system, which is to be progressed year after year over the next three or four years. I find it a dispiriting image of our country that we are prepared to do this in the most dire economic circumstances, attacking those who are the weakest while simultaneously, from this April, reducing the top rate of tax for those with the highest levels of income, over £150,000, from 50% to 45%. The noble Lord referred to this group, telling us that the top 20% are contributing a major share of tax revenue to the reduction in the deficit. Does he not realise that, arithmetically, that arises because they are so darn rich compared with everybody else?
The distribution of income in this country has deteriorated and become so skewed that the higher tax revenues contributed by those on higher incomes are a direct function of the extraordinarily high pre-tax incomes observed in the top portions of our society. The Minister’s references to the proportion of revenues now being derived from the purchase of £3 million houses, or from the impact on £1.25 million pension pots, will seem like a Hollywood fantasy to the people with whom we are dealing in these measures.
Will the Minister also confirm that the reduction in real incomes of the lowest two deciles in the economy is greater in proportion than that of the top decile, once one takes out the tax increase introduced by Alistair Darling, which the Government always put into their calculations in order to produce the spurious argument that the top decile has contributed most? Once one strips out the measures taken by the previous
Labour Government in the March 2010 Budget, the proportionately larger contribution of the top decile disappears.
These measures directly attack the weakest members of our society and reduce the overall welfare budget at a time when it is needed more than anything else. It is not only inequitable but economically illiterate, because it reduces the transfer of funds to that section of society that provides the overwhelming economic benefit of spending every penny it gets, thereby helping to sustain activity in the overall economy. These are vicious measures from an economically illiterate Government.