My Lords, I am pleased to be able to support the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope, who, given his stance on these issues, has to be considered a noble friend. I am grateful to him for tabling the amendment, which I regard very much as a bottom line amendment; as he put it, a modest amendment. Support for it does not in any way imply acceptance of an uprating of up to 2% less than inflation, which would still happen even if the amendment was passed. Citizens Advice has calculated various scenarios assuming 2.2% inflation and taking account of any gains from the rise in the tax threshold, regularly waved as a fig leaf by Ministers. These show that for some families, in or out of work, the net loss could be as high as around £13 a week by April 2015. This is an enormous sum to lose for someone on a low income. The amendment would not prevent these losses if inflation is less than 3%. It is a damage limitation exercise designed to ensure that benefit and tax credit recipients are not required to bear an even greater burden should prices rise by 3% or more.
I, too, was going to quote the right honourable John Redwood MP—perhaps an even stranger bedfellow. As he said, it is a tough and cruel policy—and it is. He said that if inflation did go up by more than expected it would be extremely difficult. It will be extremely difficult for those affected. Inevitably, I shall be making some of the arguments that the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, made in his powerful opening speech. I hope that this will be to reinforce rather than simply to repeat.
The Bank of England has predicted that inflation could peak at 3.2% in the second half of this year. Given that the 2014-15 uprating will be based on the previous September’s CPI rate—that is, the rate in the second half of this year—this could mean an increase in benefits and tax credits 2.2% below the actual inflation rate rather than the 1.2% below inflation upon which the impact assessment is based. As the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, said, given that the incoming Governor of the Bank of England is making noises about possibly easing inflation targets and the loss of the AAA rating’s impact on import prices, it is quite possible that the 2% inflation rate predicted as the basis of the 2015-16 uprating could also be an underestimate. Indeed, many economic commentators are talking about inflation remaining in excess of 2% for at least the next two years.
A more relaxed inflation policy may well make sense in terms of stimulating the economy, but we should not leave the poorest members of the community to bear the burden—hence this amendment. My colleague,
Donald Hirsch of the Centre for Research in Social Policy at Loughborough University, has calculated the likely impact of the Bill on a two-earner couple with two children on combined low earnings of £20,000 a year and in receipt of child tax credit and child benefit. Over the next three years, if inflation is on target at around 2%, they will lose just under £300 a year in real terms. To repeat the point, that is a cut. If it runs at 3% a year over the period, they will lose as much as £500 a year.
When we talk about inflation rates with reference to benefit upratings, we must remember two things. First, the switch from the RPI to the CPI is already expected to significantly depress benefit rates over the long term. The House of Commons Library cites the OBR’s long-term assumption that the annual increase in the RPI will be 1.4% more than the CPI. The Library calculates that such a difference will result in benefits being worth, after 10 years, 86% of the amount they would have been had they continued to be uprated by the RPI. That is quite a big difference. Secondly, even the RPI does not provide an accurate measure of the impact of price rises on low-income recipients of social security benefits and tax credits at a time when the prices of the essentials upon which they spend a disproportionate share of their budget are rising faster than prices generally. Recent work by the IFS shows that the general trend in recent years has been for higher than average CPI inflation rates for those on low incomes. Again, Donald Hirsch has calculated the increase in the cost of a minimum basket of necessary goods and services between 2001 and 2011. This shows that someone whose benefits were uprated only by the CPI during that period would have a shortfall of around 11% as opposed to if they had been uprated by the cost of the minimum basket. He warns that,
“there is every reason to believe that similar trends, in which the cost of a minimum budget rises faster than general inflation, will continue in the future”.
Analysis of the global influence on prices suggests that a long-term increase in commodity prices will have a knock-on effect on essentials such as food, fuel and clothing, and could mean that someone on basic benefits in 2020 would be at least 20% worse off relative to the minimum requirements in 2000—and that is before taking account of the long-term effect of three years of legislated cuts in the real value of these benefits.
It is not surprising that the Office for National Statistics reported in December that spending is falling fastest among the poorest, with an average reduction of 9% on the previous year among the bottom 10%. A number of noble Lords argued at Second Reading and earlier today that it does not make economic sense from the perspective of stimulating growth to depress demand in this way among a group with a greater propensity to spend than to save.
In the Second Reading debate, the Minister responded to the concerns raised by a number of noble Lords about what will happen if inflation soars. I guess he was trying to be reassuring when he said:
“We will continue to monitor the rate of inflation closely … and the impact that it has on the cost of living for families. This will continue to be a key consideration for this Government’s policies in the future”.—[Official Report, 11/2/13; col. 553.]
If I were, say, the parent of a young disabled child and had little prospect of getting a job by 2016, I would not take much comfort from that assurance. I would want to know what the Government will do if their monitoring shows that inflation is on the rise and is having a highly damaging impact on the cost of living for low income families. The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, asked a very direct question: what will the Government do? I do not know whether the noble Lord who is to reply can give a more precise answer than simply that the Government will monitor the situation. In other words, I would want an element of certainty, which this amendment seeks to provide.
The need to provide certainty was a theme of the remarks from the Government Front Bench at Second Reading and has already been emphasised during this debate more times than any of us care to say. The point has already been made, but as the noble Baroness said, she will continue to repeat the point about certainty and we will continue to repeat our point about certainty. The Minister was concerned only about certainty for taxpayers and the markets and said nothing about certainty for those affected by the Bill. But they too are taxpayers, even if not all of them are direct tax payers.
The Minister said:
“We believe it is only right that we set out our plans in advance and give as much certainty as possible”.—[Official Report, 11/2/13; col. 553.]
However, as other noble Lords have said, in the face of the very real possibility that prices could rise by more than the anticipated 2% or so during the uprating periods covered by this Bill, the application of an arbitrary 1% cap, regardless of the actual rate of CPI inflation, provides total uncertainty for people living in poverty who will be affected by this legislation. That is a point that we have to repeat over and over again. At the very minimum, I believe that we have a responsibility to support the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, in order to inject a modicum of genuine certainty for those affected and a modicum of justice.
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