Let me begin by expressing thanks to all those who have contributed to this debate
so far—I am sure that there will be many more after me—and to the hon. and learned Member for North Antrim (Jim Allister). He has set out his view to the House with the same ardour as he did a fortnight ago, although at greater length than he was allowed to in Westminster Hall, and he made his case during his time in Stormont as well.
It is important to restate to him what my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland said to this House a fortnight ago, which is that the Government want Northern Ireland to prosper and flourish as an important part of the Union. On that, many of us will find agreement. We are here to do what is best for the people of Northern Ireland. I also reiterate the Government’s commitment to both the Windsor framework and to the UK internal market. It was on that point that the Secretary of State respectfully disagreed with the hon. and learned Member for North Antrim in this House a fortnight ago.
I will set out the Government’s objection to this Bill, which is not compatible with international law, does not account for Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, and would take away powers that are given to the Northern Ireland Assembly to make decisions about Northern Ireland. It would result in a regulatory black hole that would be very bad for businesses, jobs, growth, the Northern Ireland economy and the rest of the United Kingdom.
I will start by outlining some of the good news for the Northern Ireland economy—news that shows what the Windsor framework, the prospect of stability, the Executive returning, and the stability of a new Labour Government are doing for the economic outlook in Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland composite economic index indicates that economic output increased by 0.4% over the quarter to June 2024 and by 2.3% over the year. Ulster University’s economic policy centre shows that Northern Ireland has a forecasted growth rate of 1.4% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025. The region’s economy is performing better than was expected at the start of the year. This has been driven by strong growth in employment, particularly in the transport, construction and health sectors.
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency’s interdepartmental business register shows that the number of businesses registered for VAT or pay-as-you-earn operating in Northern Ireland in 2022 is estimated to have risen by 1,550 since 2021 to 77,640, and is continuing to increase. I could go on and on; I have a longer list of the good news stories for Northern Ireland. The economy is working, but all the businesses I speak to talk about the need for stability, and the underlying premise of this Bill would change that stability. We would go into uncertainty and chaos, which would not be good for the Northern Ireland economy.