May I say what a pleasure it is to follow the hon. Member for Walthamstow (Stella Creasy)? She makes an excellent case for rejoining the European Union. I could have scarcely put it better myself, and I hope her leader is listening. She makes some important points, any teasing aside, about the importance of economic data and of being able to model the impacts of the Government’s decisions.
I rise to speak to new clause 10, which is in my name, but first I would echo a number of voices from various parts of the Chamber that have expressed regret that we have before us a narrow Bill to ensure compliance with the requirements of the CPTPP, rather than a debate on the substance and fundamental principle. That is something on which, collectively, we could do much better.
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The Scottish National party’s concerns about the impact of the CPTPP relate to the long term. However, if positive impacts are hard to find now, it is important that any negatives be identified early and, where possible, mitigated. In Committee, the Minister stated that there should be a “biennial monitoring report”, and a comprehensive evaluation report for the whole agreement prepared
“within five years of the UK’s accession.”––[Official Report, Trade (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) Public Bill Committee, 20 February 2024; c. 41.]
Although that is welcome, it may come a little late for any sectors that are immediately adversely affected.
We know from the various iterations of the post-Brexit agreement on trading arrangements between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the European single market that even in the most carefully negotiated and meticulously scrutinised arrangements—and most were not—unforeseen adverse consequences can emerge that need to be addressed. That is why, in new clause 10, we call for what might be called an early warning report. It would, within six months, set out the impact CPTPP implementation has had on the UK’s trade in goods and services and on GDP. If new clause 9 had been selected for a vote, we would have voted for it, to make available that baseline of data.
The Scottish National party finds merit in all the amendments. In particular, we would be happy to offer support for new clause 1 in the name of the right hon. Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Sir Iain Duncan Smith), who is no longer in his place. It is fair to say that at times there appears to be a disconnect between the UK Government’s trade policy and foreign policy. Surely there can be no doubt that the accession of other states to the CPTPP could present a risk to national security, to other trade, or to international relations objectives that His Majesty’s Government might determine on. As such, the very least that Members are entitled to expect is a report by the Government, and a
vote in the House of Commons on the accession of any economy designated as either a threat or a strategic challenge in the integrated review, so that Members can express their view on that accession.
I listened with interest as debate ping-ponged across the Chamber on how we might ensure better scrutiny of trade deals. That is a valuable debate to have. Obviously, different viewpoints have been expressed, but the Bill was an opportunity—and through amendments, there is still an opportunity—to ensure that information is brought to the House, so that Members can at least express a view on trade deals, even if that view is not binding on the Government.
That brings me to new clause 4, which to some extent has stolen the thunder of new clause 1. SNP Members will be happy to walk through the Lobby in support of new clause 4. If successfully passed, we would expect the resulting reports to cover the information requested in new clause 1.
I turn to investor-state dispute settlements. Our concerns about their potential application in the absence of side letters of exemption are well known. As we heard from the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Hodge Hill (Liam Byrne), there are jurisdictions in the CPTPP’s membership that have a number of pension funds and investors with significant financial interests around the world, not least in the UK. I listened carefully to what the Minister said in Committee about why he did not feel it necessary to have measures in place to deal with this issue, but I remain thoroughly unconvinced of his argument that because the UK has never been subject to successful action under ISDS, it is unlikely to be subject to it in the future. I assume that the Minister has never been run over by a bus, but that he still takes the suitable precaution of looking both ways before crossing the road. We should not take this risk and open up the UK economy to the full scope of ISDS. Had new clause 3 been selected for a vote, we would have been happy to support it; it would have allowed for monitoring of ISDS’s implementation.
Finally, we support new clause 12 from the hon. Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sarah Green). Although the Bill is narrow, it introduces a number of measures that affect performers and the manner in which they can assert their rights. It is important to understand as quickly as possible the practical impact of any unforeseen consequences, so we think it prudent to add new clause 12 to the Bill, and are happy to support it.