Let me say first of all that I welcome the Chancellor’s statement. It is good to see that, at long last, the light has come on and he has realised that, “You cannot tax your way to growth,” and that some of the wrong policies that were followed by him, and by the Prime Minister when he was in that post, are now being reversed.
All the economic evidence shows that the more you tax people the less growth you will have, and the more you tax businesses the less money you will have to invest, and therefore you will have low levels of growth. I know that a lot of people have spent a lot of time criticising the Chancellor today, but I am pleased that a sinner has come to repentance. There should be great rejoicing about the fact that this Damascus road experience in the Treasury is now going to bear some fruit in our country. The models contained in many studies conducted by, for instance, the Cardiff macroeconomics research group, the Centre for Brexit Policy, and the Growth Foundation have already shown that a low-tax economy can benefit in terms of growth, which then helps to increase tax revenues, reduce debt and finance public services. It is a virtuous circle.
There are some measures that I particularly welcome, including some of the tax changes. It is good to see a reduction in national insurance contributions, especially at a time when the OBR is forecasting that GDP growth per head will rise by only 0.7% and inflation will rise by 5.1%. While those figures show that the cost of living problems will continue for ordinary individuals, it is good for them to have some of their own money to keep or spend, enabling them to pay those higher prices. I also welcome the corporation tax allowance. Again, this is targeted not just to give companies profits to distribute to shareholders but, more importantly, to incentivise them to invest. That targeted way of reducing corporation tax is important.
I also welcome the business rates commitment, although I hope that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has paid close attention to what has been said about the importance of keeping business rates low, because one of the suggestions being made around Northern Ireland at present is that, as he has some responsibility for bringing budgets forward due to the Executive not being in operation, business rates might be one of the areas where he could save some money. I hope we do not have a policy of the Government in London saying that reducing business rates is important while the Minister in Northern Ireland says, “Oh well, it’s a different situation here.”
I would point out, however, that despite all these tax cuts, there are tax increases coming down the way for businesses. On green taxes, the Government have made much of wanting to try to reduce the cost of their net zero policies. The OBR forecasts suggest that environmental taxes are going to soar to £20 billion, that emissions trading taxes will go up by 50% in the next year and that environmental levies will be up 100% by 2026. That is a burden on businesses, and of course the planning policies that are being introduced are simply to allow for the expensive roll-out of the grid due to net zero policies.
I also want to mention the fact that there are Barnett consequentials in this statement for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The Barnett consequentials for Northern Ireland are meant to be about £185 million, but none of that is likely to be spent in Northern Ireland even though these measures were designed to promote growth and help to expand the economy. They will be taken back. We know for certain that some will be taken back by the Treasury to repay the overspend that occurred as a result of the incompetence of the Sinn Féin Finance Minister who oversaw a budget overspend in Northern Ireland. This is happening in a week when Northern Ireland has been denied money from the levelling-up fund as well.
I hope that the Chancellor will listen to the arguments from Northern Ireland and from the Fiscal Council that, despite the claims being made, Northern Ireland is actually underfunded in relation to Scotland and Wales, because need is not taken into account. On top of that, when money is allocated in statements such as these, it is not even made available in Northern Ireland. The Government cannot ignore this issue if they want to bring up the level of growth in Northern Ireland.
I welcome the fact that the Government are going to encourage people to get into work. That should not be regarded as some kind of bullying tactic. It should be seen as important for those people who are unemployed. Whatever their reason for being unemployed, they will be encouraged to get back into work and make a contribution, and of course raise their own self-esteem as well.
We also welcome the triple lock on pensions. When we had some influence in this House, we made it a condition of working with the Government that the triple lock be maintained, and I am glad that that has continued to be the case, especially at a time when the cost of living is increasing so much. Pensioners on fixed incomes require the support that the triple lock is providing.
I welcome the fact that the Government are now turning around, and I look forward to more tax reductions. As other Members have pointed out, people have been dragged into a higher tax rate as their wages have gone up, and some find that it is no longer worth their while working. Let us take a single parent on a £50,000 income who needs to pay for childcare if they want to go out to work. Some find that, by the time they have paid their childcare costs, their marginal rate of taxation is nearly 68%. If we are looking for a supply-side measure, there is one. We could release a lot of skilled people into the workforce by ensuring that their childcare costs do not prohibit them from working.
Only time will tell, but I hope that the measures taken today will have the impact that the Government hope they will have, because that will be good for the economy, for individuals and for public services.