I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier). She has made some important points, some of which I will come on to shortly. I am grateful to my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer for his statement. As we go through the details of the announcements and the delights of the OBR forecast, there will be much discussion in the forthcoming debates. I always take the view that Budgets and fiscal events, some of which I have been part of in the past, need to address three crucial challenges: whether they support the economic freedom of our constituents; whether they empower businesses and enterprise to create economic growth, as it is the private sector, not the state, that grows the economy—I will come on to state spending shortly; and whether they manage the public finances in a sound and sustainable way.
I suspect that you, Mr Deputy Speaker, like me are old enough to remember the great Conservative Budgets from the 1980s delivered by Geoffrey Howe and Nigel Lawson—you do not need to agree with me on that right now. They set the benchmarks that any Chancellor, especially a Conservative one, should look to and follow to get the right balance of creating economic growth and sustaining the public finances in a suitable, sustainable and measured way. It should always be the mission of a Conservative Government to ensure that people can keep more of what they earn; it is right that the Chancellor used that statement a number of times and spoke about the fiscal measures he is introducing to ensure that that happens.
Of course, businesses and people spend their money far more effectively, efficiently and productively than the state, which is why low-tax economies are also naturally the fastest growing ones. A lower tax burden would mean more money in the pockets of our constituents to provide for themselves and their families. Having listened to speeches made by those on the Opposition Benches, it is fair to say that we would all agree that we want all our constituents to be well-off, financially and economically, for their families and their futures. A lower tax burden would also mean more money available to businesses to invest and expand. The Chancellor touched on some measures, and I shall do so shortly, on jobs and higher salaries. Naturally, this leads to more resources for economic growth. That is also why I fundamentally believe the Government should look to bring the levels of personal taxation down. The Chancellor mentioned that today, but I might suggest a few cheeky measures to say what more we can do on that, as more can be done.
Today’s autumn statement marks—these might actually be the words of the Chancellor—a major moment when the Government and the country change gear and focus on how to drive growth in the decade ahead with the a package of tax measures, while seeking to ensure that inflation continues to fall. That is absolutely right. There are different ways in which it can be achieved, and the Chancellor has outlined the ways in which he wants to make sure that it happens.
On the measures announced today, naturally I support cutting the main rate of national insurance contributions—the infamous NICs—from 12% to 10%. It was refreshing to not only address but go as far as abolish class 2 contributions for the self-employed. That will have implications and the devil is in the detail, as touched on by the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch, including issues of interoperability, such as how that will relate to and engage with the pensions system, technical measures and delivery. That is a fact of life. I do not want to be pointed, but HMRC and DWP use two different systems that are not always interoperable; I am a former DWP Minister and a former Treasury Minister, so I have seen that in action. I urge the Government to pay attention to the delivery of that measure, and I have no doubt that the Public Accounts Committee will be watching very closely as well.
On reducing the tax burden, my colleagues on the Treasury Bench will expect me to say that I maintain, fundamentally, that we can do more to freeze income tax levels. I know Treasury Ministers have heard me and indulged me on that subject before. Back in 2010, the measures around the tax-free threshold and increasing the higher rate threshold were a significant way to help families directly, in a sustainable way. I point to that example because it did not lead to a fall in inflation. Of course, the inflationary measures we see now—external measures, such as the war in Ukraine and energy prices—are different, but I will continue to lobby the Government relentlessly because I want to see a shift in tax-free and higher rate allowances.
That is important in the context set out by the OBR today, which states:
“Tax changes in this Autumn Statement reduce the tax burden by 0.7 per cent of GDP but it still rises in every year to a post-war high of 37.7 per cent of GDP by 2028-29. Income tax increases explain most of the increase in this forecast, rising from 10.2 per cent of GDP this year, to 11.3 per cent in 2028-29”.
Those increases are driven by, dare I say it, the threshold freezes in income tax rates and the nominal earnings growth that will come from that. The implications are self-evident: more of our constituents will pay more income tax, there is the infamous fiscal drag and more people will move into higher rate bands, so ultimately 400,000 more people will pay the additional rate.