That was a fascinating and wide-ranging speech from the hon. Member for South Thanet (Craig Mackinlay). Twice he used the analogy of being a Betamax waiting for the VHS video to arrive. I am sure I have heard that speech from the Conservative Benches so many times that it was like a worn-out Philips Video 2000—another plan that never quite made it.
The Financial Secretary made a number of remarks at the beginning of her address. She said debt servicing costs were down, and indeed they are—down from last November, but still massively up from one year ago. She said the fiscal targets were to be met, and indeed they are. The debt target in particular will be met in five years—it will be down by 0.2% of GDP. That is £6.5 billion out of
a GDP of, at that point, £3 trillion. The margin for error is very small. She also said that employment will go up—that is to be welcomed—and the OBR certainly suggests that it will. It will go, over the next five years, from 60% to 60.4% of the available workforce. That is helpful, but it does not begin to touch the edges of the labour shortage and skills problems that we have.
The OBR has told us that living standards will fall by 6% or so over this fiscal year—the largest two-year fall since Office for National Statistics records began in the ’50s. We know that there is a combination of reasons for that, particularly inflation, which was at 10.4% in February. I am sure that we have all seen in the last day or so the 17.5% inflation rate in groceries, which is really affecting people and was reported from February. We also know that the Government could have done more to ease people’s cost of living pain. They should not simply have frozen the energy price cap at £2,500 but reduced it to £2,000. They could and should have maintained the £400 energy support payment, but they chose not to. Those measures would have borne down even more on inflation, which would have been helpful.
In a sense, what is more disturbing than the lack of immediate help is that the Government seem relatively content with the modest progress made towards tackling the long-term underlying issues in the UK economy. Productivity in particular remains a huge problem. The OBR forecast from the Budget said that productivity per hour would not even reach 1.5% growth in any year during the forecast period—that is below the 2% norm.
Of course, some aspects of the Budget and the Bill are to be welcomed and may well help with productivity issues. I am thinking particularly of the full expensing of capital allowance until March 2026, but as the hon. Member for Ealing North (James Murray) pointed out, that is temporary—it is only for three years—and the impact on business investment over the forecast period is not particularly clever. At the same time, the failure to increase the annual investment allowance means that businesses planning to benefit from £1 million of investment allowance will find that that £1 million of planned investment has been badly eroded by inflation.
Likewise, the intention to deliver £20 billion of research and development spending by 2024-25, which could certainly help with productivity, was not mentioned in the Budget, as I said on Budget day. I have done some digging about because there seems to be a lack of clarity on that. Is it because that £20 billion was actually meant to be £22 billion but that figure was quietly dropped? And was the 2024-25 goal pushed back to 2026-27? In either event—whether we get £20 billion or £22 billion of total R&D spend, and whether that is in in two, three or four years—the investment will not be of the same value as when it was first announced because of inflation.
Although references to R&D credits are certainly there in the Bill, part 2 of schedule 1 seeks to limit attributable expenditure on data licences or cloud computing in some circumstances. There may be good reasons for that, but I suspect, given that a large amount of future R&D work will be on cloud technologies, that we will have to probe very carefully indeed in Committee to find out whether the Government are justified in removing from R&D credits the attribution of such costs.
Likewise, we will also need to probe in Committee the decision to remove the cap on lifetime pension allowances, which will cost around £3 billion but benefit a tiny
number of already pretty comfortably well-off—or, indeed, very wealthy—people. If that measure is genuinely designed to lift certain categories of worker—doctors in particular—out of a pension and employment trap, the Government will, to be brutally honest, have to come up with a much better and narrower solution.
We also saw the decision to impose a huge 10.1% rise in the duty on Scotch whisky. The Scotch Whisky Association could not have been more stark in its response, saying:
“We have been clear with the UK Government that increasing duty would be the wrong decision at the wrong time”—
I agree with that—
“so it is deeply disappointing that one of Scotland’s largest and longest-standing industries has been treated in this way.”
It also said:
“This is an historic blow to the Scotch Whisky industry. The largest tax increase for decades means that 75% of the average priced bottle of Scotch Whisky will be collected in tax”.
I welcome and support sensible duty measures—the Government know that I would welcome a duty regime based on alcohol content, with no other criteria—but the decision to put such a significant and substantial increase on Scotch tells me that the UK Treasury views this totemic industry as, frankly, no more than a cash cow.
The Financial Secretary spoke earlier about enhancing the environment. In the Budget debate I laid out the huge cost and almost unlimited financial risk to the taxpayer of nuclear energy. The reasoned amendment that SNP Members tabled was critical of not just the decision to invest in nuclear but the failure to invest fully in real green, renewable technologies. Nowhere was that more obvious, and more starkly demonstrated, than in the next contracts for difference auction, which will be allocation round 5, the budget for which has been reduced by 30%, from £285 million to £205 million. The tidal stream ringfencing has been halved to £10 million.
This all comes at a time when inflation in the price of materials and construction is in the order of 30% for established renewables and closer to 50% for projects such as the MeyGen tidal stream, which is the largest tidal stream project in the world. Although the budgets are now annual rather than biannual, the allocation means that fewer projects can be successful when they bid, which means we are likely to see reduced pipelines of orders in the UK and reduced investor confidence. We saw that in onshore and offshore wind projects, which became reliant on foreign manufacturing. By contrast, UK-based supply chains account for 80%-plus of tidal stream content. For example, Orbital Marine Power’s O2 device was delivered with an over 80% UK supply chain spend. It was designed in Orkney and built in Dundee with steel from Motherwell, blades from the Solent, anchors from Anglesey and hydraulics from the midlands
With a bigger ringfenced pot for tidal, we have the opportunity to scale up the MeyGen site in particular; otherwise, we will end up cutting costs and being dependent on foreign manufacturing, and the technology will lose out, as did the wind technology when Denmark provided Government support for its sector and the UK lost out. At this point, if the UK Government do not increase the overall budget, the whole process could fail, like the most recent Spanish auctions, and all against a backdrop of massive investment through the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States.