I accept that I used the wrong expression in suggesting that the hon. Gentleman was crowing. But may I set out the basis on which I have these concerns? In the Prime Minister’s speech on 4 January, there was not one mention of the word “housing”, let alone any mention of the expression “home ownership”. Why is that? We obviously have a real crisis in housing and home ownership on our hands. We are facing a potential fall in house prices this year—predicted by Oxford Economics to be about 12%, but who knows? Having stamp duty land tax, even at temporarily reduced levels, will mean that the burden of the reduction in house prices will be borne by those people trying to sell to a greater extent than would otherwise be necessary, because potential purchasers will have to budget for making SDLT payments to the Government.
You can tell, Mr Evans, that I am very concerned about the Bill. When I see that the Prime Minister has declared that the people’s priorities are the Government’s priorities and that we will rebuild trust in politics through action, all I can say is that I do not believe that the new measures in the Bill accord with the people’s priorities because I think those priorities are for a permanent reduction in stamp duty land tax and even, potentially, the abolition of that tax, rather than reintroducing it at a higher level in 2025.
When I was talking earlier today to a member of the Government’s Treasury team, I was told that one reason why my amendment (b) could not be accepted by the Government was that it had not been cleared by the Office for Budget Responsibility. I ask rhetorically, “Who is in charge?” Are we really saying that the Office for Budget Responsibility is able to forecast things to the extent of £1 billion here or £1 billion there? I do not think it can, and if that is the best that the Government can do in arguing against amendment (b), I hope they will think again about whether to accept it.
3.45 pm
We cannot carry on as we are now, where the average age of a first-time buyer is now 34 and the average house costs 5.5 times the earnings of a first-time buyer; 25 years ago, it cost only 2.1 times as much. The hon. Member for Erith and Thamesmead (Abena Oppong-Asare) on the Opposition Front Bench referred repeatedly to the Resolution Foundation reports on these issues, which draw our attention to the fact that young people are unable to get on to the housing ladder. The reports introduced quite an interesting statistic for me: 1.3 million young people who would have owned a home in 1989 are not able to own one today.
I do not know whether those 1.3 million young people would be more likely to vote Conservative if they were homeowners, but I suspect they probably would, and I think that is one reason the pressures against home ownership, which were begun very softly by the Blair Government, are still pursued by the Opposition parties. That is also why, instead of facing up to the need to address stamp duty land tax, the Opposition are now trying to divert attention on to those who own second homes.
On the question of second home owners, let us think about families. At the moment, if a husband and wife are married with children and they buy a second home, they are already penalised. If two adults are in a relationship with each other, but each one has a separate house that they occupy individually, and they then share at weekends or perhaps during the week, so that they have two homes between two people, they would not be caught by any of the regulations relating to second homes.
Let us think about the law of unintended consequences. Do we really want to introduce even more regulation that will probably have the perverse consequence of making more young people say, “Why should we to get married? As soon as we do, instead of being able to have two homes as we currently can, we will only be able to have one.”
On that point I will close my remarks. This Bill presents a great opportunity to debate a such big issue; I hope the Government, if they are as radical as they say they are, will come forward with some proposals to abolish stamp duty land tax. I think that would be a very popular manifesto commitment.