I will keep my remarks brief—mercifully brief, most people might think—because I do not want to repeat much of what has been said in the debate. I am particularly grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Chesham and Amersham (Sarah Green) for her remarks and to the hon. Member for Penrith and The Border (Dr Hudson) for his excellent speech.
I will put on record some of my concerns on behalf of my constituents. It is disappointing that there will not be a meaningful vote on the content of these trade
deals, as we have covered at length today. My farmers have made it clear to me that they feel very much sold out by this agreement and that their interests have been bargained away for the sake of a good newspaper headline and an agreement with little forecast benefit to the UK.
I would like for a moment to touch on the concept of forecasts, having done them as a career before this one. Forecasts are by their nature not facts and are uncertain things, but there is no way that in my previous career I could have gone to my director with a forecast and said, “Well, it’s not as good as we wanted, but fingers crossed, as my last one was a bit on the low side, I’m sure it’ll turn out okay.” I do not think I would have walked away from that meeting with my job intact. I think we need to recognise that forecasts are always going to be wrong, but they reflect a range of possibilities and they are the best information we have. We should rely on the most likely outcome and bear in mind the upside and the downside provided. I do not think we should be dismissing forecasts as too pessimistic, because we do not have any better information to work from.
We have heard from many people who have said that the main point about farming, and it is a very good point, is that the failure to ensure that the world-leading environmental and animal welfare standards we are so proud of in the UK will be required of farmers who import to us risks undercutting our own farmers, and particularly our small family-owned farms. This comes at a time when the industry is being battered from all sides. The costs of doing business are spiralling, and we have heard today about fertiliser, animal feed and fuel prices. We are seeing the basic farm payment being reduced before its replacement is fully available, and we have an increasingly unpredictable climate for farmers to grapple with.
This is happening to such an extent that some of my farmers are now considering hanging up their wellies for good. I am sure that is not the Government’s intention—as the hon. Member for Totnes (Anthony Mangnall) pointed out, many Conservative Members represent rural constituencies—but, along with the financial incentives to encourage farmers to shut up shop, I fear that it may be the result. In rural constituencies, agriculture may not be the biggest factor, but it is the backbone of daily life and food production and, certainly in my constituency, is one of the most significant employers. It is just not okay to take these rural voters and these constituencies for granted by allowing these poor deals to go ahead.
I want to pick up a point about food labelling and consumer choice, because food labelling in this country is already confusing. British consumers can go into a supermarket and buy bacon that has been processed and packaged here and has a Union flag on the package, and they believe they are buying British. In fact, that pork will have been reared overseas, probably in the EU, in a place where lower standards are allowed, for instance in the use of farrowing crates. I have met local pig farmers who have been forced to kill pigs on farm while European carcases are processed in the factory down the road because those carcases are cheaper to import. I can see the situation becoming worse for our farmers, particularly for the beef and sheep farmers we are talking about in respect of these deals, if we allow this to go ahead.
As many Members have said, this Bill sets a precedent, so even if the volumes from these two deals are relatively small, when we go forward into our new negotiations we could be opening the floodgates to a large amount of produce that will undercut our farmers. We have also heard from Members that this is a time when food security should be top of our agenda. We should be producing as much as we reasonably can to keep food on the table, not introducing extra risks into British farming. I am disappointed to see the Conservative Government doing that, because they made iron-clad commitments that new trade deals would not undermine British farming.
It is important to mention the environmental cost. Allowing food produced to lower standards simply offshores our responsibility to lead the world in sustainable food production. I am reminded of a very silly joke, and I am afraid it is not funny: “What is that farmer doing over there? Well, he’s out standing in his field.” It is silly, but it is true, because our farmers are outstanding in their field. Of course, we can do more in British farming to protect the environment and improve animal welfare, but we have already shown global leadership and we should proudly continue to do so by insisting on a level playing field in the trade deals we sign.
The new Prime Minister was personally involved in negotiating both these deals. They have been assessed as damaging to the British farming sector and as producing little benefit to the wider economy, and they have not been allowed the full scrutiny of Parliament and the meaningful vote on their contents. I think that is an alarming precedent for the future, so I hope she improves in her new role.
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