I refer the House to my business interests in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests.
May I start by saying what a pleasure it is to follow my hon. Friend the Member for East Worthing and Shoreham (Tim Loughton)? I think I agree with everything he said, particularly his point about the importance of early years. All I would perhaps say is that, like him, I have been drinking English wine since the 1970s, and we had to grimace at the time. It has got a lot better, and I commend it not just to the House but to the world. It is first class.
This has been said a few times, but may I say well done to the Treasury Ministers? When a colleague says that, there is usually a “but” at the end of it, but I do mean it. The Chancellor has done a phenomenal job. He has been very sure-footed during the last 18 months, and that is what we have needed. He and the Treasury team have been absolutely right in ensuring that we minimise the economic impact of the pandemic, with the furlough scheme and all the rest of it. I think the success that we are seeing with the economy now is a testament to that period when tough decisions were required, and taken, for the good of all.
I thought the Budget overall was very good. There was lots of optimism in it, quite rightly; that was quite justified. I liked the measures to help the lower paid, including the reduction in tapering on universal credit; I liked the green jobs emphasis; I liked the science and technology emphasis, and I liked the reform of how we levy duties on alcohol. I particularly liked the introduction of a £9.50-an-hour national living wage, as a result of which those working full time will be something like £1,000 better off per year. That will particularly support younger and lower-paid workers and help the UK transition to the high-wage, high-skill economy that we need.
I suggest that the Government should not be pushed off course by big business. For too long—perhaps 20 years —because of unlimited immigration while we were a member of the EU, it has relied perhaps too frequently on lower wages as a substitute for investment in R&D, the skilling up of the labour force and increased automation, all things that will now lead to the emergence of new and better-paid jobs. That in turn will serve to increase productivity. That is excellent news, and higher wages and controlled immigration will also bolster our one nation agenda, the aim of which is to encourage economic prosperity in order to better help the less fortunate in society.
Having said all that, in the few minutes I have left, I would like to share a few concerns with Treasury Ministers. I do not think that I am alone in being concerned that the level of spending increases forecast over the next four or five years is nearly double the growth rate of the economy. If we think it through, that is unsustainable. It can only result in financial pinch points—perhaps the raising of taxes and the taking on of more debt. It cannot be sustained indefinitely.
I am not someone who attaches much credence to forecasts, but even the Treasury forecast suggests that, as this five-year spending review period unfolds, the growth rate, if anything, will fall off. We have to look at this very seriously. We have to try to reboot growth, in many respects, and at the same time keep an eye on inflation. We are at a tipping point as to whether inflation is indeed transitory or whether it will become embedded. We have to be very careful about that, because it will have serious consequences for living standards generally if we let inflation out of the bag. We have to look at rebooting growth and do everything we can, because at the end of the day, growth is where it’s at. It is growth that is the engine room when it comes to a prosperous economy, a prosperous society and helping to raise living standards.
I make no apologies in opposing the increase in national insurance. We used to believe in the Conservative party that it was a tax on jobs. We seem to have drifted away from that. I urge Treasury Ministers to think about that, because in the end an increase in national insurance is reflected in lower pay and higher prices, which are bad for workers, businesses, customers and the economy as a whole.
We need to take another look at corporation tax. We need to reduce corporation tax over time. All the evidence suggests that if we reduce corporation tax or taxes generally, in the medium to long term, we increase revenues. It is not a zero-sum game. Low taxes equals greater prosperity. I also encourage the Government to
consider bringing back a lower rate of corporation tax for small and medium-sized enterprises, which we all know employ a disproportionate number of people.
It is not just about lower taxes, however. We need to deregulate more if we are to reboot growth. There is too much regulation out there, including in financial services and in industry generally. I specialise in something called investment trusts, a hangover from our EU membership. Key information documents—KIDs—are still far too complex. They should be pushed to one side, with better and simpler regulation brought in.
We should also, now that we are out of the EU, consider scrapping more tariffs. Why do we still have tariffs on imported goods? I do wonder. The trade deal with New Zealand, announced last week, is a step in the right direction. A lot of tariffs were reduced or removed altogether. I did not know, for example, that we charged an 8% tariff on New Zealand onions, but that has now been scrapped and rightly so. We need to look again at reducing taxes, deregulating and scrapping tariffs.
In the minute or so I have left, let me touch briefly on one or two other items that perhaps were not touched on enough in the Budget. The cladding issue was mentioned. The Government have to look at that again. The problem is not the fault of leaseholders. It has been an extraordinary consumer regulation failure. I made my opposition known. The Government have moved a long way on this, but I still think it is wrong that we should ask leaseholders to pay anything when it has not been their fault. So I ask Treasury Ministers to look at that again.
On soft power, as chair of the British Council all-party parliamentary group, we recently fought a campaign to get the Government to think again. For the sake of an extra £10 million, the Government opted to compel the British Council to close 20 of its overseas offices, as defined by removing a country director and staff. That will damage our soft power. It has been the largest set of closures in the proud history of the British Council. Some people forget that it was established in the 1930s to help to counter the rise of Nazism. It is too much to ask. If we want to give meaning to our concept of global Britain and engaging with the world, we cannot be closing 20 offices. The British Council does an inordinate amount of work when it comes to our soft power.
I would suggest this, if money needs to be raised. I opposed HS2. I think it is the biggest white elephant this Government or any Government have spent money on for a long time. Yes, some forecasts suggest we would lose £10 billion, but we would save £90 billion. A fair bit of money could be saved if we scrapped it even at this stage. I would also take a close look at quangos. We have far too many quangos. The TaxPayers’ Alliance reckons that billions of pounds would be saved if we consolidated them or brought them under more control.
I reiterate what a good number of other hon. Members mentioned, which is getting value for money for the expenditure we are asking the taxpayer to incur. I was chair of the all-party parliamentary group on cancer for 10 years, so I can testify to the fact that Governments of all parties have, for good reasons, bombarded the NHS with process targets, such as two-week and four-week waiting times, but not focused enough on outcome measures—in other words, one-year cancer survival rates. That is why, despite all the money that has gone into the NHS, we are still not catching up with international averages when it comes to cancer survival rates.
Half those who work in the NHS are not medically trained, but just a tweaking of that figure—say, 60:40—would make a phenomenal difference on the frontline. We must re-examine how money is spent. Overall, however, this is an excellent Budget and I commend it to the House.
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