The so-called rule of six, like the ban on household mingling in some parts of the country and, indeed, the original lockdown measures, was introduced under public health laws that were originally envisaged as a means of controlling the movement of infected people, not of whole populations and not for indefinite periods of time. The approach being taken is truly unprecedented. These rules are a massive intrusion into the liberty and private lives of the whole British people, and they are having a devastating economic effect, which will result in big job losses and masses of business failures.
The rule of six has only been in place for three weeks or so, but much of the country has been under additional restrictions for much longer. In Greater Manchester, for example, people have been banned from mixing with other households, including close family, since late July. It would be interesting to know what conclusions the Government have reached about the efficacy of these restrictions, given the 10 weeks of experience that we now have in those areas with greater restrictions.
Rates of positive testing in those areas have fluctuated over the summer months. In Trafford, rates were falling in July, when we were put into the additional restrictions, but rising a month later. After 10 weeks, the positive test figures in Trafford are roughly twice as high as they were in July. In the city of Manchester, the increase has been tenfold.
If I asked the Minister whether these restrictions are proving effective, I suspect that she would say, “But it might have been worse if we weren’t doing it.” If so, she needs to tell the House how long she would maintain a ban on household mingling or a rule of six in the event that test rates continued not to respond to the restrictions. Does she accept that there could be no exit from the policy?
Can the Minister share with the House her estimate of the efficacy of a rule of six, compared with that of a rule of eight, had that been introduced instead? Is a rule of six more or less effective than a ban on household mixing? What assessment have the Government made of the efficacy of the rule of six in England, and in Scotland and Wales, where young children are excluded from it? The Minister did not answer that question when I intervened earlier, and she would not say when such an assessment would be made, but it is a very important point. I would have thought that by the time a month has elapsed, it should be possible to see which is working better or whether they are interchangeable.
For the state to direct people whether or when they can see their families in their own homes or gardens is an extreme intervention, and this House should set the highest bar possible before approving it. If such an intrusion into people’s lives can be justified, Ministers need to be able to demonstrate that it works, they need to be able to reassure people that it will be temporary, and they need to set out the criteria under which the restrictions will be lifted. I hope the Minister will answer those questions today.
5.43 pm