It seems to me that the NHS Funding Bill is really just the beginning. If the Government are serious about identifying specifically how much money they will commit to particular parts of the NHS budget, that is to be welcomed, and certainly any increase in any part of NHS spending is welcome. A 3.4% increase compared with what we have had during the very challenging period of the past 24 years is therefore very welcome. I believe that it actually is a floor, not a ceiling. I totally understand the interpretation, which I think is correct, of the money resolution, but that relates specifically to amendments to this Bill. My reading of the money resolution is that we can, in further Acts, expand and increase these amounts.
My real concern is trying to get to the bottom of how these figures have been arrived at. There has been an assumption that it is all about inflation and looking at comparative figures, but there are three pieces to this. What are the assumptions underlying the decisions that have come to these figures? What assumptions have been made about inflation, because Brexit has changed much since these figures were first arrived at? How are we looking at demand and need? Do the Government really understand what the unmet need is? Certainly, reports by the Public Accounts Committee indicate that the Government do not really have a grasp of that. That then leads me to question whether these are the right figures to do what everyone in this House wants, which is to meet the needs of all our citizens for good healthcare and, ultimately, good social care, which is not part of this Bill. I think the Government have missed a bit of an opportunity here. It would be helpful if they had set out how they will flex if the assumptions with regard to savings and efficiencies changed, if the inflation rate changed, or if demand changed. The bits missing from
this Bill are a formula to calculate the increase and some honesty about the basis on which the Bill has been put together.
As we have heard, some specific promises have already been made in a five-year plan. We have said that mental health spending will go up by £2.3 billion, which is a 4.6% increase a year; that mental health spending for children and young people will grow faster as a part of that budget; and that there will be an increase in primary and community healthcare spend in the areas of highest health inequalities. But as yet we do not have any mechanism for an annual statement on exactly where we are on this spending. In addition to a formula that explains how we got to this magic figure, there should be an annual statement on these figures so that we can see how the 4.6% a year increase for mental health has actually been delivered and whether children and young people are actually getting the biggest chunk.
It has been said, quite rightly, that in this Bill we are looking at only part of our total health and care ecosystem. We must look at what we do about infrastructure—hospital—spending. The £2.8 billion hospital infrastructure promise in the spending review last year was very welcome, but, as the hon. Member for Central Ayrshire (Dr Whitford) pointed out, what about the repairs? With regard to the training budget, the spending review refers to a 3.4% increase. Is that really going to cover it? How are we going to measure whether it is actually spent? The hon. Lady referred to the 1% increase in public health grant. Can that really be enough? For me, what is really needed is an annual report on all health spending. The biggest challenges to getting this right—I am not the first and I will not be the last to say it in this Chamber—are stopping the slippage from revenue budgets to capital budgets and the slippage that will inevitably occur if social care is not properly funded. We absolutely have to fix the social care challenge, and this Bill is not enough, and cannot stand alone, in terms of solving these issues.
This Bill is welcome, but it is in many ways a missed opportunity. We need to see the total picture. We need to have proper accounting. We need to have proper visibility of the numbers so that we as a House can demonstrate clearly to the great British people that we are delivering on what we have promised and what they need.