If the hon. Lady is not feeling sore from some of my remarks, she is more brazen than I thought she was—[Laughter.] As she has not yet heard the rest of my speech, she does not know what I am going to say or the balanced arguments that I am going to make about corporation tax.
Everyone who has spoken so far has suggested that there is widespread support for the Bill in Northern Ireland. That is, of course, not true. The Green party opposes it, but then that party opposes economic growth apparently, according to its latest manifesto. I can understand, therefore, why it would not want to see any measures that would encourage economic growth in Northern Ireland. I do not know how the Green party expects us to tackle our unemployment or standard of living problems with no economic growth, but in any event it opposes the Bill.
The other opponents of the Bill are the trade unions, which are organising a one-day strike against it and other measures some time in March. At the same time as they complain about youth unemployment and the low-wage economy, they oppose a measure that has the potential to address all of those issues and want to strike against it. I do not understand their logic.
The only other party that opposes the measure is the traditional Unionist voice, but I think that is because we support it. That seems to be the rationale for anything it does.
All parties in this House are agreed that tax incentives can be beneficial in stimulating business growth. Some may disagree about the actual form the tax incentive should take or the degree to which it should be used, but there is an undeniable correlation between such incentives—be they small business rates relief, corporation tax reductions or oil industry taxes—and growth. Shareholders are attracted to putting money into businesses, which in turn have more profits to plough back into investment. Tax incentives can also give businesses a competitive edge over those in other countries. That is the rationale behind the Bill and no one can deny that it will have an effect.
In Northern Ireland there is an additional reason to make the change in that we share a land boundary with a country that has had a lower corporation tax rate. Some people say that this will not have a beneficial effect, but it is significant that, even when the Government of the Irish Republic were having to slash public expenditure and incur the wrath of the population by reducing wages in the public sector, putting up taxes, introducing new charges for water and so on, the one area for which they were fiscally responsible and did not make any changes was corporation tax. They had obviously judged that when it came to fighting for business, corporation tax—albeit along with other measures—was a shock and awe tactic they could use to try to attract businesses to the Irish Republic. That is a significant argument.
I have a degree of scepticism about economic modelling. As I am sure the Financial Secretary would tell us, we can put whatever finely tuned assumptions we want into economic models, but they can be upset fairly quickly. In the next 15 years, it is estimated that output in the Northern Ireland economy will grow by 11%, creating about 37,500 jobs. Any economic model must come with a warning that the assumptions on which it is based can change fairly rapidly. However, the estimate has been made using the economic data we have at present: assumptions, past trends, information from other economies and so on. In Northern Ireland, we cannot afford to ignore that estimate, even if it is not totally correct, especially if it will grow the private sector and bring in well-paid, above-average jobs.
We had concerns about a number of issues. We did not want a Bill for people who simply moved their profits to Northern Ireland and did not create jobs. There is no benefit to us in having companies with just a brass plate outside the door, but no substance. I believe the Bill addresses that issue, as much as it can, by indicating that it will benefit trading profits only. In addition, there will be strict investigation by the Treasury of companies who try to move profits. As I understand it, there will be a charge for ensuring that compliance measures are put in place to avoid such scenarios.
If we do that, what about small businesses? Many small businesses, especially in the construction industry, have a substantial amount of work in Great Britain because of the decline in the construction industry. We did not want small businesses to have huge administrative costs imposed on them for differentiating where they made their profits. I welcome the proposal in the Bill that businesses based in Northern Ireland with 75% of
their activity and employment there, will be exempt on all their profits. That should cover 99% of small businesses in Northern Ireland so there should not be administrative costs for small businesses.
Oil and gas is excluded from the legislation. I hope that very shortly, despite the endeavours of the Social and Democratic and Labour party Environment Minister, we will have a substantial oil and gas industry that can exploit the shale gas resources that we believe are buried under the ground in Northern Ireland. There may be some who play the populist line and say, “Let’s just keep those resources there. After all, they’re nasty CO2-producing fossil fuels.” I want them to be exploited for the benefit of the people of Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom. The profits from those companies would not currently be subject to the corporation tax arrangement, but I hope that if and when we develop such an industry, Northern Ireland will benefit from the kinds of promises that have been made to the north-east of England, including a sovereign wealth fund to take in part of the profits from those businesses and plough them back into public expenditure projects. I understand, however, why that has not been included at present.
On financial sector profits, there were two issues. I was not all that supportive of the argument about why those nasty banks, who nearly destroyed our economy, should benefit from reductions in corporation tax, paid for by reductions in the block grant. I understand the emotional rhetoric in that argument, but I am more concerned that the profits of banks and other financial institutions are much more volatile and more easily moved without detection than the profits of manufacturing or other companies. One has only to look at the difference between 2007-08 and 2008-09, when banks’ profits changed from £255 million to £45 million. That kind of volatility in tax revenue was a compelling reason why we should not include the profits of financial institutions in the Bill. I am glad that the Government have responded to that.