It is a pleasure to operate under your chairmanship, Mr Streeter. We are here to discuss United Kingdom oil and gas, which is in severe difficulties, partly because of a substantial drop in the world oil price. In these debates, it is always important to get the facts right. One key thing about the industry is just how important a part it plays in the UK economy. According to Oil & Gas UK, the industry body, the industry supplies 73% of the UK’s primary energy: oil for transport and gas for heating. The UK balance of payments benefited from oil and gas to the tune of £30 billion last year. The oil and gas supply chain achieved sales of £20 billion outside the UK. The total expenditure in services and infrastructure investment from oil and gas companies in 2013 was £20 billion. Since 1970, the industry has invested £500 billion.
In recent years, the expenditure has been particularly high. In 2014, the industry invested around £14 billion of capital investment in UK oil infrastructure, following on from investment of £11.4 billion in 2012 and £13.5 billion in 2013. Across the industry there is a total committed expenditure—that is, projected future expenditure—on projects in production or under development totalling £44 billion. Figures like these have not been seen since the 1980s. They are massive figures: there is no question about that.
The industry claims to support 450,000 jobs in the UK. These break down as follows: 36,000 employed directly by offshore operators; 200,000 in the supply chain, providing goods and services to the industry; 112,000 jobs in services such as hospitality, taxis, and so on; and 100,000 jobs in the export of goods and services. It is difficult to visit any foreign oil base or complex without hearing a Scottish or English accent. We are operating throughout the world.
Many of these jobs are now under threat because of the collapse of the oil price. Major companies—Shell, Chevron and, last week, BP—have announced redundancies. Some of these have been expected for some time and were part of company restructuring as well as the downturn in the oil price. More announcements are inevitable.
I can find no reliable figures showing the numbers so far made unemployed, but I know from union sources, for example, that roughly 600 people have been made redundant in companies where there are recognition agreements. However, most cuts are likely to be made to the self-employed, who comprise a large number of offshore and onshore employees; they are the easiest and cheapest to remove. At the moment it is estimated that there will be around 2,000 job losses in total. I think that is a fairly realistic projection.
How things will proceed from hereon is difficult to judge at the moment. Many jobs lost so far have been lost onshore and it may take time before large numbers of offshore jobs are put at risk. Everyone will be mindful of the need to retain skills for when the upturn arrives, whenever that might be.
In the history of the North sea oil and gas industry there have been at least three serious downturns. The worst and most damaging was the downturn in the mid-1980s, when 20,000 jobs were lost in Scotland, most of them in Aberdeen and the north-east. Some 50,000 jobs were lost in the whole country. The fact that the job losses were higher in the rest of the UK than in Scotland reflects the fact that, although the industry is centred in Aberdeen, the supply chain and the work force is spread throughout the UK.
There is a risk that this year’s downturn could be as serious as the one in the 1980s, but I think it is possible to take steps to mitigate that. In the first place, the industry has changed substantially from the industry we had in the 1980s. For example, it is much more widely spread with fewer of the majors involved. I believe that with the right sort of focused support from Government and the industry, this very difficult time will not develop into the tragedy that we saw in the 1980s. Of course, there is very little we can do about the global price of oil, but we can look at the other issues that have faced the industry for some time now and consider how we can soften the blow and minimise damage.
Exploitable oil and gas are proving harder to find, and discoveries that are made are often in places that are difficult and expensive to exploit, particularly if there are issues around access to infrastructure. Some of these problems will be addressed when the recommendations of the Wood report are fully implemented, but that is likely to be some time away, although there are moves to accelerate the process.
Then there is the skills shortage. Until relatively recently, few companies offered apprenticeships in technical skills. In the 1970s and ‘80s, the industry attracted engineers, welders, boilermakers and others from the collapsing smokestack industries: mining and shipbuilding, and so on. That supply has been exhausted and the work force are ageing. Trainee and apprenticeship programmes have been introduced in recent years, but those take time to make an impact. In the meantime, labour costs have risen enormously and companies have poached skilled staff from each other, driving wages to high levels. With my trade union background, I am the last person to complain about that, but it has a serious impact on costs offshore.
Oil & Gas UK says that contracting prices have doubled since 2010. One executive from a major company told me recently that the cost of scaffolding alone—there are 6,500 workers working on scaffolding in the North sea—has tripled in the last two years. It is obvious that a slice of the money that previously would have been spent on research and development, exploration and appraisal, which are all things to take the industry forward into the future, have been diverted into meeting these wage costs.