Of course I want to see more people back in work, particularly young people, but the hon. Lady must remember that we inherited from the previous Government an economy that had hit the buffers, with young people cascading out of work in the two years running up to the election. Youth unemployment rose over their whole period in office, which suggests to me that their policies were hurting young people long before the recession. What we are doing is aimed at getting more people back into work. We have been successful in improving the situation, as the figures now are better than those we inherited—more people are in work, including more young people—but of course there is more to do, and it is this coalition Government who are doing it.
We are also introducing our other programmes, including the Work programme and universal credit, with the pathfinders moving into the north-west and eventually rolling out by 2016. We know that 90% of claims for jobseeker’s allowance and other benefits are already being made online, which is a huge change—only about 10% or 12% were made online before—that is improving speed and accuracy. Some 78% of claimants are confident about their ability to budget with monthly payments, as a result of the programmes we have run. Two thirds think that the universal credit process offers a much better work incentive than jobseeker’s allowance. Even in its early stages, universal credit is having a significant impact on people’s work prospects: claimants are likely to spend twice as long looking for work; two thirds
agree that it is easier to understand their obligations; and 86%—rising to 90%—are confident of gaining a job within three months, which is a much higher rate than for jobseeker’s allowance.
These are dynamic changes that we are making, improving the path back to work, the incentives and the choices that people make. We are improving their work prospects and helping them into meaningful, long-term jobs. However, I gather from the Chief Secretary that the Treasury received a submission from the Opposition in the run-up to the Budget for an alternative to our programmes, which they call a jobs guarantee. I thought that we should look at that, just to examine whether it was worth embracing. I think it only fair that we tell the House whether or not it would work. Having looked at the proposal in a completely ambivalent manner, I have to say that it is confusing. The first submission said that it was a six-month programme for young people. The second submission said that it was a year-long programme. The third submission said that it was a two-year programme for the long-term unemployed. I gather that there is now some suggestion that it might be a six-month programme for everybody.
Apparently the jobs guarantee is now a flagship policy for the Opposition, but I understood that it would be funded for only one year. Now we hear that the same funding they announced for one year is meant to last all the way through a full Parliament. We asked the Treasury to do some formal costings for that, which I hope have been made available to the Opposition. They said that their scheme would cost only £1.9 billion in its first year and £0.9 billion thereafter, but the Treasury’s formal costings—[Interruption.] I know that Opposition Members do not want to listen, because the last thing they want to hear is how they would pay for it The Treasury, which is full of decent people doing a hard day’s work, has shown that there is a massive gap of £2.6 billion per year between what the Opposition say their jobs guarantee will cost and what we calculate it will cost.
Not only have the Opposition underestimated the costs by £0.6 billion in the programme’s first year, and £1.7 billion in future years, but they have no robust means of funding it. They say that they will fund it with a bankers’ bonus tax that will raise £2.3 billion, which is questionable, but I understand that they have spent that 10 times over. Let me list a few of the things they have committed to spend it on: reversing the VAT increase, which would cost £13.5 billion; more capital spending, which would cost £5.8 billion; reversing child benefit savings, which would cost £3.1 billion; reversing tax credit savings, which would cost £5.8 billion; and more housing, which would cost £1.2 billion. They have made £30 billion of spending commitments, apparently to be paid for by a tax that would save them £2.3 billion.