(Select Committee Statement): I am pleased to have this opportunity to make a statement about the Transport Committee’s recent report on high-speed rail. The crowded west coast main line currently combines long-distance inter-city, inter-regional and commuter passenger services, together with freight. Network Rail predicts that by the middle of the next decade the line will be unable to meet demand for new train paths and there will be increasing levels of overcrowding. In 2011, we looked in detail at the Government’s proposals for a new high-speed rail line from London to Birmingham and onwards to Manchester and Leeds. Phase 1 is due to be completed by 2025, and phase 2 by 2032-33. This proposed new line is a major piece of national rail infrastructure and must be seen as part of the wider rail network. We commissioned our own research into HS2, and considered the capacity the alternatives could provide. We concluded that only HS2 could deliver the step change in capacity needed to accommodate forecast long-term demand on the line.
Our new report looked again at HS2, in the light of the revised strategic case published by the Department for Transport in October and the research by KPMG on the line’s regional economic impact. The Department’s case rests on a prediction of 2.2% per annum growth to 2036. Demand is assumed to stop growing after that, only three years after completion of the line. Capacity remains the key issue and no new information has emerged to challenge the conclusion we reached on this question two years ago. Alternatives to HS2, based on upgrading the existing line and changes to train configurations, would not provide a long-term answer to the capacity challenge. These alternatives would themselves be costly and cause considerable disruption over a long period.
In addition to addressing capacity issues, the line will increase connectivity between our major cities. It can help to promote growth in the UK’s city regions and contribute to a rebalancing of the economy. This, however, is not automatic. Local authorities and local enterprise partnerships must develop economic development strategies to ensure that this takes place, and the Government must back these. The Department must become more proactive in ensuring that HS2, as part of the nation’s infrastructure, brings maximum benefit.
UK firms and workers must have the opportunity to secure employment from this major investment, starting with its construction. This requires specific initiatives to make businesses across the country aware of the possibilities. Action must be taken to enable all regions to benefit from improved services and a more successful economy. KPMG’s assessment of the regional economic impacts has generated considerable controversy. This is useful work, but there are limitations to its findings and the research should be developed further.
The report highlights the varying effects HS2 can have on different areas. This research reinforces the importance of taking steps to ensure that the benefits are spread as widely as possible. Work should now be prioritised to widen access to the high-speed network, improving journey times on the classic railway and promoting additional local and regional services on capacity freed up by the new line. This means that the Department, HS2 Ltd and Network Rail must work together.
Control of costs is essential. The estimated cost of HS2 over a 20-year period is £28 billion, plus £14 billion contingency and £7.5 billion for rolling stock. These are major amounts of money—