HMRC’s analysis, which is a good piece of work, showed through two different mechanisms that the reality was that the amount being raised was somewhat less than had been predicted. The fact is that the behavioural response was much greater.
Let me say a word or two about that. To start with, HMRC estimates that as much as £18 billion worth of forestalling took place in 2009-10, of which about two thirds, up to £11.3 billion, has been estimated to unwind in 2010-11, but this forestalling was not factored into the original revenue calculations. Furthermore, HMRC estimates that between one third and one half of the behavioural effect comes from genuine reductions in income. We have heard this evening that this is all about tax avoidance, that tax avoidance increases when we increase the rate and that we can be sure we will get the benefit of it as we unwind, but the reality is that between one third and one half of this was simply the result of less economic activity, because people reduced their hours and participation in the UK labour market and moved elsewhere.