Northern Ireland Economy

I am glad to participate in the debate because rebalancing the economy of Northern Ireland has been on the agenda of my party and of many other parties for a considerable time. It must be realised, however, that the current economic climate—the challenges presented to public expenditure, the availability of finance from banks to fund growth in the private sector, including that of small and medium enterprises—has added urgency to the debate in recent years. Others have laid out many of the statistics and problems, so I shall avoid repeating and rehearsing those arguments. It does bear saying, however, that the imbalance between the size of the public and private sectors in Northern Ireland is well documented, and it is not in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland to sustain that imbalance. I agree with the hon. Member for East Antrim (Sammy Wilson) that action to address the imbalance has to be focused on both growing the private sector and reforming the public sector to make it efficient, effective and supportive of growth. There are some good reasons why it would be foolish to pursue a project simply involving public sector cuts which, alone, cannot be the emphasis for reducing the overall imbalance. For example, the Northern Ireland economy is around 70% public sector in terms of gross value added or of gross domestic product, but public sector employment is around 30% of all employment. I acknowledge the mix of indices, but it illustrates that a quite significant element of our economy—probably more than a third and perhaps up to 40%—is effectively the private sector doing work for the public sector. The hon. Member for East Antrim referred to the effect of public sector efficiency savings on the private sector, which must be borne in mind as we consider how to rebalance the economy, its timing and how we phase any approach. In my constituency, I have been told how public sector cuts and efficiency savings could, perversely, force contraction in some of the private sector, at least in the short term. We have already seen an example, which only this afternoon I raised with the hon. Member for East Antrim, in his other capacity in Northern Ireland; Departments seeking to reduce their expenditure are using Government-only facilities for training and so on. The impact is that many of the private conferencing centres, which have developed good business models, are being squeezed out, not because they are not competitive but because the impetus is to use Government and therefore subsidised facilities for training. Over-reliance on the public sector is not good for Northern Ireland, leaving us more exposed and more vulnerable when there are public expenditure cuts than we would want to be the case. It can also have a dampening effect on business innovation, and the dynamics risk the absorption into the public sector of many of the graduates with the skills and abilities to set up their own businesses, because they believe it to be the more stable opportunity. The size of our public sector in Northern Ireland, compared with our private sector, can also create a clientist culture generally in society. When so many people directly or indirectly depend on the Government for their employment, the normal robust challenge faced by the Government from the private sector and others on economic policy can be dampened or squashed. People are afraid to challenge, because they recognise that their own jobs could be affected. It is not possible to have a proper debate about rebalancing the Northern Ireland economy unless we also look at the rebalancing of the UK economy more generally. Northern Ireland is dependent on economic subvention from the UK Treasury, but it is important to recognise that only three UK regions are net contributors to the Treasury. Northern Ireland is the most dependent of the other nine, and the imbalance and the reasons for it need to be scrutinised carefully. Clearly, a more active regional policy is needed by the Government, to promote a more even distribution of economic activity throughout the UK. It is not sufficient to concentrate wealth creation in the south-east and for the Treasury then to redistribute the proceeds among the other regions; to do that has considerable implications not only for the economic prospects of the regions and the individuals who live there, but for the health and well-being of those residing in less economically active regions. There is a correlation between the degree to which regions are contributors to the Treasury and their level of dependence on the public sector. For example, the regions most heavily dependent on subvention are the most acutely affected by cuts in public sector spending and by welfare reform. Currently, the overall GVA of Northern Ireland is around 80% of the UK average. Successive Governments have nominally committed policy to regional convergence, but London and the south-east are still regarded as the main drivers of the UK economy. It appears that Governments have traditionally put a much higher premium on protecting and maintaining that position and then tolerating financial subsidy and dependence than on giving regions greater autonomy to become sustainable in their own right. Many of the levers to address the imbalance in the Northern Ireland economy are devolved, and other Members have already reflected that. While the Assembly and the Executive have rightly prioritised the economy in their work, it is worth noting that the Northern Ireland Assembly currently has no real financial incentive to deliver economic growth, as the level of the block grant is set independently of considerations of economic change. Devolution of some tax-varying powers linked directly to economic growth should therefore be considered, because they would be not only positive in their own right, as with corporation tax or air passenger duty, but a positive step in developing a responsible and normalised system of government in Northern Ireland, under which the Executive can make decisions that influence economic outcomes and will benefit financially from making the right decisions. Greater access to those financial levers could encourage and facilitate creative local solutions for economic growth and prosperity, if implemented carefully. I take on board the caution expressed by the hon. Member for East Antrim about the risks attendant on devolution, and I understand the need for robust engagement with the Treasury to ensure that whatever price tag is attached is fair and reasonable and will not blight the economy in another way. Alliance is therefore generally supportive of the devolution of corporation tax in Northern Ireland. Although we recognise fully that that alone is not a silver bullet for the challenges facing our economy, the Executive can make and implement many other interventions to co-ordinate with it and help it rebuild the economy. As other hon. Members have recognised, revenue lost in the short term due to the lower rate of taxation would have to be met from the Northern Ireland block grant, under the terms of the Azores ruling in the European Court of Justice. However, I firmly believe that without a reduction in corporation tax, there is little scope for a step change in Northern Ireland's economic condition. Despite more than 15 reviews of Government economic strategies since the mid-1950s, there has been no substantial reduction in the performance deficit between Northern Ireland and the UK. It is therefore important that the Treasury works closely with the Executive to consider the case in an open and transparent way, in order to ensure that it is affordable and build the confidence necessary to deliver it. As well as making the case for a reduction in corporation tax, we must ensure continued investment across policy areas in Northern Ireland that have a strong impact on economic growth: capital investment, energy infrastructure, education and skills and research and development. It is vital that all those policy levers are fit for purpose and can be shown to produce the desired outcomes when the correct environment is created. [Mr Lee Scott in the Chair] My party colleague, the Northern Ireland Minister for Employment and Learning, is also focused on ensuring that skills are prioritised and developed, and has been working closely with others to deliver the economic strategy. The information and communications technology working group, for example, is bringing together the Department for Employment and Learning, the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment, Invest NI, universities, further education and businesses to consider skills shortages and mismatches and find a plan to address them. Reclassifying tourism as a priority skills area—I will return to tourism later—changes the funding formula and has been done in recognition of tourism's hugely increased potential from 2012 onwards. Research on potential changed skills needs under a lower level of corporation tax is also hugely important, as the kinds of job created by that reduction will be different from those we currently attract. It is also important to note that Northern Ireland has had its largest increase in higher education places since 2000, and that they are all in science, technology, engineering and maths subjects. The role of science and technology in developing the economy has been given due recognition, and it is important that the Executive continue to do that. I say that not only as someone who was an engineer before becoming a politician but because I genuinely believe that science and technology hold opportunities to help regrow our economy and build on our strong base. The Government have also started to consider the issue of air passenger duty, and I give them huge credit for how they have handled it. Differential rates across the land border with the Republic of Ireland created challenges for us in maintaining our direct international link with the US. The Government's timely intervention was hugely helpful not only in maintaining that link, which is important for both tourism and business, but in keeping a base on which we can build for the future. That is just as important as retaining the current link. Long-haul flights have been dealt with, and a proposal is being considered to devolve the matter to the Assembly in order to allow them to consider future issues involving rates. That is welcome, but we must also recognise the impact on regional connectivity, for example with the south-east, which is still the largest economic driver in the UK. We live in a region where the only option for business travel is flying. We pay a premium to access the south-east of England. Others can at least consider alternative means of transport, but that is not open to us, and it has a direct impact on our ability to grow the private sector. That continues to be a significant challenge, and I hope that the Government will consider it with a degree of sympathy.