Finance (No. 3) Bill

I remind the House of my entry in the Register of Members' Financial Interests as a shareholder in Shell, and of my wider interests in the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas in the North sea belongs to the nation, but unless we have a regime that attracts experts with the finance and knowledge we need, we will not benefit from it. One of the amendments before us would restrict the tax raid to a year, to ensure that the Government and industry can engage in constructive dialogue that will encourage investment. It is important to restore confidence in the tax regime. Following previous supplemental changes, Governments had to work very hard to restore confidence and bring back investment, with field allowances and other incentives. They engaged with the industry and provided assurances that once the tax change had been made at the beginning of a Parliament, it would not be revisited until the next election. There is scope for restoring confidence, but some hard work will have to be done. The Government need to address some of the arguments that are being made, particularly the one advanced by my right hon. Friend the Member for Gordon (Malcolm Bruce) about what individual investors are getting for their investment. It has been put to me that people made a decision to invest last June, but now the price of oil is $125 a barrel. If they decided to invest and then hedged for this year at $88, they are not getting $125, because the hedge fund is getting the profit. I do not see a tax being brought in on hedge funds; instead, it is being imposed on the people on the ground doing the hard work, on the skilled labour and on the knowledge and risk-taking. When we talk about windfalls, we have to be slightly careful in the case of an industry with a fluctuating commodity price. When the price goes up it makes more profit and when the price goes down it makes less, but Governments tend not to say, ““We're a bit concerned that the price has fallen, so we're going to cut the tax.”” If there is a one-way ratchet, that causes uncertainty and concern in the minds of investors. Amendment 13 suggests that if there is a desire to have a profit-related tax that varies with the price of oil, there should be some predictability to it. The hon. Member for Aberdeen South (Dame Anne Begg) said that it would cause complication, but that complication could be factored into new financial modelling. If there was a variable rate of profits tax, any company making an investment decision could factor that in and know where they stood in the fiscal regime. It has been put to us that other countries, such as Norway, have different fiscal regimes for investment. However, Norway has had a stable long-term fiscal regime with very little change, and it has also had the attraction of less mature, bigger finds with more upside for investors. It is important to understand the confidence element. The Energy and Climate Change Committee has seen evidence on the wider future of our electricity and gas network. This country wants to attract £200 billion of investment in its energy infrastructure, but if investors are being asked to build a massive offshore wind farm that will bring in more profits if the price of carbon goes the way they are betting, they will look across and see what has happened to the oil industry. They will not want the Treasury to come along and say, ““Electricity bills are rising, so we're going to put a windfall tax on the offshore wind farm,”” which would undermine that investment decision. There is a read-across from gas and oil to wider investment in energy and big infrastructure projects in this country. This is not just a constituency matter for my right hon. Friend the Member for Gordon and myself, who have many constituents who work in the industry, have jobs related to it or are economically affected by it. As has been said, it also affects East Anglia, Morecambe bay and other areas. The supply chain permeates the whole of the UK economy.