Health and Social Care Bill

I shall not give way. The Bill is setting up an incentive system that will make GPs make the wrong choices. It will return the NHS to a sort of pre-Nye Bevan, atomised system of health, rather than a planned system that uses resources efficiently. The system will lend itself, in the new era, to duplication, profiteering, businesses going bust and waste. What is more, there is no political mandate for the Bill; it is a Trojan horse of privatisation that no one knew would come. The changes will probably cost £3 billion or £4 billion to administer and will clearly set us back a number of paces before we move forward—if we do move forward. A few people have mentioned the excellent work of John Appleby, the chief economist of the King's Fund, who wrote in the British Medical Journal that the rate of deaths from heart disease is falling much faster here than in any other European country. It is falling to such an extent that it will be lower than the rate in France by 2012 even though we are spending 28% less. In terms of relative efficiency, we are doing well. Breast cancer rates have fallen by 40%, compared to 10% in France. I am not complacent and I do not pretend that there should not be greater productivity. If I had to point to one area in which there should be greater productivity, it would be the fact that we pay GPs too much money. That is the fault of the previous Government for negotiating a situation in which GPs can make more and more money. Now, it seems, we are encouraging them along that track, as though making a load of money were the primary focus. My basic point is that if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Reform, yes: breaking the system, no. The Bill is not evidence-based. We are hurtling ahead, although people do not know the likely downside—the duplication, the amount of profit, the failures and possible hospital closures. The Bill is not economically sound or robust. I have mentioned other difficulties one of which is that we make GPs subcontractors who want to maximise profit. In Wales, there is a move towards directly employing consultants and GPs, as opposed to giving them free rein on profit maximisation. Assuming that the Labour party wins in the Assembly election in May, we will see over the next five years the emergence of parallel systems, one of which will be a modernised version of the traditional health service and the other a marketised system. There is a conflict of interest between the profit motive and patient care, particularly in chronic conditions. If aggregate supply is to be provided by a group of GPs, as opposed to a PCT, there is the risk of local shortages—of flu vaccines, for example. There might be local shortages in one area and excess supply and waste in other areas because of the absence of a strategic plan to deliver the right aggregate and match supply and demand. In terms of customer and consumer watch, something called HealthWatch is to be introduced. Given the Government's record in getting rid of Consumer Focus and bundling it in with Citizens Advice, I have little faith in the effectiveness of HealthWatch in looking after patients who, as I mentioned, are relatively ignorant of the product they are offered and face a local monopolist. With reference to lifting the cap on private patients, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Croydon North (Malcolm Wicks) said, there is a risk that BUPA, for example, might suddenly funnel a lot of its patients in one direction because of discounted purchases, crowding out patients in a certain area. That would lead to unpredictability in the system. We are asked to believe that the abolition of 150 PCTs and 10 strategic health authorities will miraculously save us some 45% of current expenditure. The people of Wales will make the right decision in May.