Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill

My Lords, when I came into this House I was told that it was not a tradition to divide the House too often in Committee and the general view was that we should concentrate our efforts for divisions on Report. I hope that noble Lords on the Cross Benches who have told us privately that they feel sensitive about areas of the Bill will join us in the Lobbies when amendments are moved in the next few weeks or months. I wish to speak to the amendment tabled by my noble friend Lord Liddle as an amendment to the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Teverson. I would dearly love six parliamentary constituencies in the county of Cumbria but I recognise that there are problems. I want to go into this in some detail because, although we have each personalised areas in the debate, there are principles involved when dealing with boundaries in Cumbria that apply more widely. Over the years, Cumbria has made a great contribution to British politics. We have provided a large number of Secretaries of State—Edward Short, now the noble Lord, Lord Glenamara; the noble Lords, Lord Cunningham, Lord Jopling and Lord Hutton; Lord Peart, my predecessor; and Lord Whitelaw—all of whom have been members of the Cabinet. We have provided many junior Ministers—the noble Lords, Lord Henley, Lord Inglewood, Lord Brett, Lord Judd, Lord Dubs and Lord Cavendish, who intervened in the debate today, and a number of other Peers have strong connections with the county. My noble friend Lord Liddle took us on a quiet canter around the county and explained the interesting characteristics of many of the communities which it comprises. He stressed the very strong local loyalties and community identities that are often incomprehensible to people coming from outside the county. Noble Lords should remember that we are talking primarily about the Lake District and the communities that surround it. These are historic places with a long history of community involvement and identity. I talk this evening about what I can describe only as a sensitive issue because I was MP for Workington for 21 years. I often say to people who write to me or even stop me in the street when I am in the constituency that I have had my time and I try not to interfere, as do many of us former MPs. We do not interfere in our former constituencies. Therefore, it is with great sensitivity that I venture into the numbers. We are now in the numbers game because this Bill is about numbers not communities. I will take the county as a whole and explain the problem and the possible solution, and how the Bill may well offend lots of people within the county. At the moment, there are six parliamentary constituencies. Broadly, without going into the actual detail, Barrow has 68,000 electors, Carlisle 65,000, Copeland 63,000, Penrith and the Border 64,000, Westmorland and Lonsdale 67,000, and Workington 59,000, within a few hundred. That makes a total of approximately 390,000 electors across six constituencies in the county. That is an average of approximately 65,000 per seat. Those who know the detail in the Bill will know exactly where I am going. It means that every seat in the county falls under the requirement in the Bill for 76,000. The actual figure is 64,972 people per constituency. Subject to the 5 per cent leeway or 76,000, we are 14 per cent under the 76,000 target in every seat, so unless there are major changes in the way in which this legislation is implemented, there will be major changes within the county of Cumbria. We will lose a seat. How do we proceed? On the basis of the 76,000, we can cross boundaries and to some extent destroy the identity that Cumbria has tried to build up over the past decades of being a county with our various district authorities and MPs who do not cross the boundary. That is one way of proceeding. We can cross county boundaries and compromise that principle, or we can settle on five seats, which I will come back to later. On the basis of the 76,000 target, if we crossed county boundaries and kept strictly to the target, a part of the county—that is to say, 11,000 votes—would have to go into a neighbouring county, which in itself may create difficulties. On the basis of 72,000, which is the 5 per cent leeway deducted from the 76,000 target, crossing county boundaries would mean that 35,000 voters in Cumbria would have to go into another county, which brings us to the amendment that was moved last night when I referred to the problems that might arise in Kendal or possibly in Penrith. If we go for the five-seat option, there will be a major reorganisation within the county. What worries me is that Workington, when I represented it, was a seat with a wide social mix. We had the Lake District with its population and the industrial west coast. A by-election in 1974, which I lost on a 74 per cent turnout, indicated the marginal nature of that constituency, which is why I intervened today on the issue of marginal seats. I recognise that the Boundary Commission cannot take political decisions, but within its calculations there must be some understanding of the need for social and economic issues to be considered. If you do not provide for some recognition of the wider socioeconomic profile within constituencies, you may well end up in Cumbria creating five safe Tory seats. I have no problem with people voting Conservative—that is their right—but for many years Cumbria has been split. At the moment there are three Labour, one Liberal and three Conservative MPs. In other words, we have a wide spread of seats, some of which are fairly marginal. We must include the marginality of seats when considering the future of boundary arrangements by making not political judgments but socioeconomic ones. Some people might say that it does not matter, but I would object just as much if the position had been reversed and the whole county was to go Labour as the result of a boundary review. The noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, mumbles from his seat. I do not know what he mumbled to himself but the point is that some of us are interested in balanced communities and electorates. I am in favour of increasing the number of marginals in general elections. There will be some debate this evening about the whole question of marginal seats. A very small number of seats nationally changing hands can actually change government. I do not think that that is the proper way unless you have proportional representation. With a first past the post system, a very small number of seats can change government. That is not a particularly effective way to run a national election system. That is one of the reasons why I am in favour and have moved steadily towards proportional representation over the years. The Boundary Commission, when making its judgment, could be organising it simply by saying that it will publish its findings, without realising the consequence that it will create a large number of seats that will rarely change hands. Carlisle, Barrow and Furness, Workington, and Westmorland and Lonsdale have all changed hands over the years, often with swings. That might stop because of the way in which this formula is being applied under the provisions of the Bill. Some might argue, ““Why bring all this statistical evidence to a debate on the Floor of the House of Lords?””. The answer is that the discussion I am having now should take place during a Boundary Commission inquiry. There should be a discussion about whether we bridge the county boundary and basically export voters into other constituencies, or somehow accept that we are going to end up with five constituencies. If it is to be five constituencies, I would like to think that the Boundary Commission will have in mind the need to create some marginality in the seats and not simply create a series of safe seats that is damaging to the British constitutional arrangement. This question of safe seats goes slightly wider because, under this mathematical formula, we might end up with a lot more safe seats—and because of that, we might end up with a reduction in the some one and a half per cent of individuals in the total national registered electorate who can influence a result. I find that worrying. Under this new formula, the danger is that that might well happen, which is why I would like to see greater flexibility in whatever decisions are taken by the commission.